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Has CAFE reached the end of its usefulness? - READ ONLY

560 messages,  Last post on Dec 08, 2012 at 3:14 PM

You are in the Automotive News & Views-Archives Forum.

What is this discussion about? Fuel Efficiency (MPG)

Messages Page 54 of 57

#529 of 560 CAFE credits by benjaminh

Jul 28, 2011 (12:18 pm)

Got some work done on my project. So now I can play around with numbers here for a few minutes.
 
So, perhaps no one cares or is reading, but I got my math in that last post pretty much right I think. If in the year 2025 Honda sells c. 300k Accords at c. 34 mpg, c. 300k Civics at c. 40mpg, and c. 300k "City Hybrids" at c. 60 mpg, that'll give you a CAFE for Honda for cars of about 44 mpg, which equals the 60 mpg the way CAFE measures which is needed by that year.
 
So to meet CAFE you're looking at about 30% hybrids and 70% regular (but improved) ICE engines, which matches up with the math found at this site for how many hybrids you get by 2025 at 50+ mpg CAFE:
 
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/07/does-cafe-doom-us-to-a-hybrid-future-no- t-necessarily/
 
But it's actually a little easier than that because of the CAFE "credits" that have been put into the rules for such things as better AC systems, little solar panels on the roof, etc., that allow companies to "buy themselves down" a bit from the actual target. We can assume that most car manufacturers are going to take advantage of these credits, which will cut at least 2 mpg off of the standard.
 
And so with the credits the car standard by 2025 will be actually more like 58 (or by today's EPA measure c.42 combined mpg on the window sticker), and for SUVs/trucks/Vans more like 46 (or 34 combined mpg on the window sticker).
 
Bottom line is that this is still a huge, huge improvement. And an ambitious goal. But I think it's pretty doable even with current technologies. And we can count on the hundreds of billions the car makers are putting into new technologies helping a bit as well.
 
The tougher standard for cars, however, will probably continue the huge trend we've had in the last generation toward SUVS, truck, and Vans and away from cars.

#530 of 560 2 cylinder gas engines?? by benjaminh

Jul 28, 2011 (12:38 pm)

Would that be practical for a light enough car, say 1800 pounds? How much power could you get from an 800cc 2 cylinder direct injection turbo? 80? It would take probably 10 seconds to get to 60, but a car like that would probably get about 60 mpg without a hybrid...Might even be fun to drive with a manual...
 

#531 of 560 Re: CAFE credits [benjaminh] by steve_ HOST

Jul 28, 2011 (12:42 pm)

Replying to: benjaminh (Jul 28, 2011 12:18 pm)
We're reading - just hard to add anything to your research.

#532 of 560 1974 Honda Civic by benjaminh

Jul 28, 2011 (12:52 pm)

glad someone's reading. Hope you'll chime in...
 
It's unbelievable how small the original Civic was. A contemporary high tech 2 cylinder engine put into that car would have more power than the 4 cylinder 1.2 liter engine that it had. But obviously with modern safety requirements and supersized Americans you are never going to sell a car as small as this again in large numbers. Just look at these stats:
 
Honda Civic 1974 specs
 
Engine and transmission
Engine location: Front, transverse
Displacement: 1169 ccm (71.33 cubic inches)
Engine type: Inline, 4 cylinder
Max power: 54.00 PS (40 kW or 53 HP) at 5000 Rev. per min.
Max torque: 79.00 Nm (8.1 kgf-m or 58.3 ft.lbs) at 3500 Rev. per min.
Fuel system: Carburetor
Speed and acceleration
Power/weight ratio: 0.0800 PS/kg
Exterior and interior
Max no. of doors: 3
Passenger space: 3310 liters (875 gallons)
Steering, brakes and tires
Turn circle: 10 m (385.8 inches)
Front brakes: Disks
Rear brakes: Drums
Dimensions and weight
Weight: 675 kg (1,488.1 pounds)
Overall length: 3570 mm (140.6 inches)
Overall width: 1510 mm (59.4 inches)
Overall height: 1340 mm (52.8 inches)
Wheelbase: 2210 mm (87.0 inches)

#533 of 560 1974 Civic 0-60 by benjaminh

Jul 28, 2011 (12:54 pm)

1974 Honda Civic 0-60 mph 15.5 Quarter mile 18.2
 
http://www.zeroto60times.com/Honda-Vtech-0-60-mph-Times.html
 
That's a bit slow for modern tastes, to say the least. What a slug.

#534 of 560 1980 Honda Civic stats by benjaminh

Jul 28, 2011 (1:10 pm)

Something just a bit bigger than a 1980 Civic might be possible to sell today....But with modern safety gear, even a car this size is probably going to weigh more than 2000 pounds, even with high strength light weight steel. By the time you get past 2000 pounds, there's no way anything less than 3 cylinders will work it seems like...
 
With the 1.5 liter engine it went from 0-60 in 11 seconds:
 
1980 Honda Civic 1500GL 0-60 mph 11.1 Quarter mile 17.9
 
http://www.motorsdb.com/honda/honda-civic-1980-images-specs.htm
 
Honda Civic 1980 specs
 
Engine and transmission
Engine location: Front, transverse
Displacement: 1335 ccm (81.46 cubic inches)
Engine type: Inline, 4 cylinder
Max power: 60.00 PS (44 kW or 59 HP) at 5000 Rev. per min.
Max torque: 93.00 Nm (9.5 kgf-m or 68.6 ft.lbs) at 3500 Rev. per min.
Compression: 8.4:1
Bore x stroke: 72.0 x 82.0 mm (2.8 x 3.2 inches)
Fuel system: Carburetor
Valves per cylinder: 3
Cooling system: Liquid
Gearbox: Manual, 5-speed
Speed and acceleration
Power/weight ratio: 0.0764 PS/kg
Exterior and interior
Max no. of doors: 5
Passenger space: 3660 liters (967 gallons)
Aerodynamic dragcoefisient: 0.5
Steering, brakes and tires
Front tire dimensions: 155/80-R12
Rear tire dimensions: 155/80-R12
Dimensions and weight
Weight: 785 kg (1,730.6 pounds)
Overall length: 3770 mm (148.4 inches)
Overall width: 1590 mm (62.6 inches)
Overall height: 1340 mm (52.8 inches)
Wheelbase: 2330 mm (91.7 inches)
Fuel capacity: 40.0 liters (10.57 gallons)

#535 of 560 history of the Civic by benjaminh

Jul 28, 2011 (1:15 pm)

http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/history.html
 
I still think the first 20 years of this car might have something to teach us about how to reach CAFE targets for 2025.

#536 of 560 1984 Civic Hatchback by benjaminh

Jul 28, 2011 (3:12 pm)

Put a 1 liter 3 cylinder turbo engine in the modern version of this car, and it should not only get great gas mileage but be fun to drive. 0-60 in 7 seconds?? 45 mpg without a hybrid?? somethin like that...
 
1984 Honda Civic 1.5i Hatchback Specifications
 
    Make: Honda
    Model: Civic 1.5i Hatchback
    Year: 1984
    Category: Small / Economy Cars
    Engine: 1488 ccm (90,35 cubic inches)
    Engine position: Front
    Engine type: in-line, 4-cyl
    Valves per cylinder:
    Maximum power: 102.1 PS (74,63 kW or 100,50 HP) at 574,630 Rev. per min.
    Maximum torque: 130.00 Nm (13,23 kgf-m or 95,42 ft.lbs) at 4500 Rev. per min.
    Bore Stroke: 74.0 x 86.5 mm (2,89 x 3.4 inches)
    Compression: 9.0:1
    Top speed: 182.0 km/h (112,53 mph)
    Fuel type:
    Transmission type: Manual, 5-speed
    Power per weight: 0.1198 PS/kg
    0 to 100km/h (0 to 62mph):
    Drivetrain: Front
    Number of seats: 5
    Passenger space: 4140 litres (1088,53 gallons)
    Number of doors: 3
    Country of origin: Japan
    Front tires: 175/70-R13
    Rear tires: 175/70-R13
    Chassis: Hatchback
    CO2 emissions:
    Turn circle length:
    Weight: 855 kg (1875,58 pounds)
    Towing weight:
    Total length: 3810 mm (149,25 inches)
    Total width: 1640 mm (64,28 inches)
    Total height: 1350 mm (52,83 inches)
    Maximum weigth with load:
    Ground clearance:
    Wheelbase: 2390 mm (93,63 inches)
    Cooling: Liquid
    Brakes type (front): Disks
    Brakes type (rear): Drums
    Cargo space:
    Lubrication:
    Leg room:
    Aerodynamic drag coefficient:
    Fuel efficiency (highway):
    Fuel efficiency (mixed):
    Fuel efficiency (city):
    Fuel tank capacity: 38.0 litres (9,99 gallons)
 
For comparison some stats on the 2011 Mini Cooper:
 
    Width: 66.3 in.
    Height: 55.4 in.
    Length: 146.6 in.
    Front track: 57.4 in.
    Rear track: 57.8 in.
    Wheel base: 97.1 in.
    Cargo capacity, all seats in place: 5.7 cu.ft.
    Maximum cargo capacity: 24.0 cu.ft.
 
    EPA interior volume: 82.0 cu.ft.
    Gross weight: 0.33 in.
    Curb weight: 2535 lbs.

#537 of 560 1984 Civic Wagon stats vs 2011 Honda Fit by benjaminh

Jul 29, 2011 (11:51 am)

The 2011 Fit is a bit larger than the 1984 Civic Wagon. This shows 27 years of progress, in a way, because although the 2011 Fit is a bit larger, ways 400 pounds more, has a much more powerful engine, and is a lot safer, it gets slighter higher mpg than a Civic from that time. But really the cars are quite similar.
 
The current EPA rating on the Fit, however, at 29 mpg combined while good should be better.
 
1984 Wagon specs:
Engine:
1488cc 12-valve
76 HP 6000 RPM
83.9 lb-ft 3500 RPM
Aluminum block and head
 
Suspension:
Front - Torsion bars with struts
Rear - Trailing link with beam-type axle
Sway/anti-roll/stabilizer bars on both ends, rear bar was inside beam axle.
 
Dimensions:
Wheelbase - 96.5"
Length - 157.1"
Width - 63.9"
Height - 58.3
Curb weight - 2015 lbs (manual transmission)
 
Measurements
 
    Width: 66.7 in.
    Height: 60.0 in.
    Length: 161.6 in.
    Front track: 58.7 in.
    Rear track: 58.1 in.
    Wheel base: 98.4 in.
    Cargo capacity, all seats in place: 20.6 cu.ft.
    Maximum cargo capacity: 57.3 cu.ft.
 
    EPA interior volume: 111.4 cu.ft.
    Curb weight: 2489 lbs.
 
Mechanical
 
Engine & Performance
 
    Base engine size: 1.5 L
    Cam type: Single overhead cam (SOHC)
    Cylinders: inline 4
    Valves: 16
    Valve timing: Variable
    Torque: 106 ft-lbs. 4800 rpm
    Horsepower: 117 hp 6600 rpm
    Turning circle: 34.4 ft.

#538 of 560 article by Wards Auto by benjaminh

Jul 29, 2011 (5:50 pm)

Obama Makes 54.5 MPG Rule Official; Engineers, Designers Wary
By James M. Amend
WardsAuto.com, Jul 29, 2011 2:30 PM Email a link to this articleEmail a link to this article Printer-friendly version of this articlePrinter-friendly version of this article
 
The Obama Admin. today releases a new corporate average fuel economy rule of 54.5 mpg (4.3 L/100 km) by 2025, and while auto executives support the target, skepticism exists among the rank-and-file tasked with meeting the bogey.
 
United Auto Workers President Bob King says today’s announcement demonstrates the White House’s willingness to listen to auto makers.
 
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“No industry is doing more on these issues,” King says in a statement ahead of the final rules, noting investment to meet future CAFE already has begun.
 
“There is business opportunity in meeting consumer demand for relief at the pump.” General Motors CEO Dan Akerson gave an important thumbs-up for the new mandate earlier this week during kickoff ceremonies for the 2011 UAW contract negotiations in Detroit.
 
“We support our societal goals of fuel efficiency and a reduced carbon footprint,” Akerson told journalists.
 
The auto maker adds today that the new rules “provide regulatory certainty” for the industry.
 
Akerson and King are among 250 industry executives, environmental leaders, lawmakers and regulators joining Obama for the announcement at the Washington Convention Center, site of the annual Washington auto show.
 
“We’ve set an aggressive target and the companies are stepping up to the plate,” Obama says. “By 2025, the average fuel economy of their vehicles will nearly double.”
Obama calls 2025 CAFE rules “something lasting for our country.”
 
The rules step up beginning in 2017 and equate to a carbon-dioxide emissions level in 2025 of 163 grams per mile, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.
 
Auto maker fleets currently are marching to a 2016 CAFE requirement of 35.5 mpg (6.6 L/100 km) by 2016, a target estabished in 2009.
 
The new standard equals an increase in auto maker fleet fuel efficiency of 5% annually for passenger cars and 3.5% annually for light trucks in the first five years and by 5% every four years after until 2025.
 
Regulators say the slower phase-in for trucks, for which auto makers reportedly lobbied aggressively, accounts for some “unique challenges.”
 
Auto makers also won a “mid-term” evaluation of the rules to examine their progress. In addition, California will adhere to the national rule.
 
The state has threatened to break away from the federal regulations to implement stricter rules within its boundaries.
 
The National High Traffic Safety Admin. and Environmental Protection Agency will continue working on a joint rule-making and release a final proposal for public comment by the end of September.
  Related Stories
Auto Makers Enter New Round of CAFE Talks Healthier, Better Armed
Upside of Downsizing Beginning to Emerge in North America
EPA Data Shows U.S. Fuel Economy, Vehicle Emissions Improving
 
Industry executives may outwardly support the 2025 rules, but a Ward’s survey scheduled for detailed release Tuesday shows 1,100 rank-and-file engineers and designers currently working at auto makers and suppliers expressing serious doubt over meeting the targets without hurting vehicle safety, size and cost.
 
Disputing claims by environmental groups, only one in four automotive engineers and designers agreed that Obama Administration’s originally proposed fleet average of 56.2 mpg (4.1 L/100 km) by 2025 could be met with currently available technologies.
 
Less than one of 10 respondents thought new fuel economy rules were being drafted with the idea of accommodating future safety rules, which will mandate significantly better crashworthiness and likely add weight to future vehicles.
 
“It is a MAJOR STRETCH, regardless of what the Union of Concerned Scientists says,” one engineer writes in a survey response.
 
A whopping 77% of respondents agreed that the 56.2 mpg bogey “will fundamentally change how vehicles are manufactured in the U.S.”
 
Ward’s latest monthly analysis of consumer purchases shows more buyers picking cars, trucks and cross/utility vehicles with greater fuel efficiency.
 
In the first half of 2011, sales of vehicles achieving between 25 mpg and 30 mpg (9.4-7.8 L/100 km) rose 4% over the same period last year. Sales of vehicles getting greater than 30 mpg are up 22.4% vs. like-2010.
 
Sales of vehicles averaging 15 mpg (15.7 L/100 km) fell 11.2% and those achieving between 15 mpg and 20 mpg (11.8 L/100 km) declined 3.8% Sales of vehicles averaging between 20 mpg and 25 mpg fell 0.4%.
 
The UCS estimates the 2025 CAFE rules will save 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, or about 23 billion gallons (87.1 billion L) of gasoline annually by 2030 and trim CO2 emissions 280 million tons (254 million tonnes).
 
The group expects consumer to save $50 million at the pump in 2030, after adjusting for technology costs.
 
The final rules for 2025 also likely will include incentives for auto makers to make advanced technology vehicles such as hybrids and electric vehicles, including special treatments for trucks, on top of encouraging use of more environmentally friendly air-conditioning refrigerants.
 
Auto makers also could receive incentives for the use of compressed natural gas and could trade credits for emissions savings or carry forward unused credits from the 2016 rules as far as 2021.
 
During his remarks, Obama singles out GM, Ford and Chrysler for their progress since two of three auto makers went through bankruptcy in 2009. He also touts the industry’s cooperation on the new CAFE rules as an example to lawmakers locked in a partisan struggle over raising the debt ceiling of “doing something lasting for this country.”
 
– with Drew Winter

Messages Page 54 of 57

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