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Automotive News & Views Has CAFE reached the end of its usefulness?
507 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2009 at 11:49 AM
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Replying to: nippononly (May 03, 2006 9:46 pm) Toyota is the prime example of what you are saying. They come out with a hybrid to match each gas hog. Notice the Camry Hybrid and the FJ Cruiser hit the streets about the same time. You watch the figures. They will not sell anymore hybrids than needed to offset the gas guzzling vehicles they sell. |
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Replying to: boaz47 (May 04, 2006 4:52 am) I agree that the average American wouldn't object to this proposal, its the ultimate consequences they might object to. It is reasonable to assume that consumers, who've gotten used to paying $6/gallon, would increase their consumption significantly if the price suddenly dropped to $3/gallon like it is here. That increased demand would have to drive up the price of oil. The price of oil would need to go up to at least $200/barrel before they were forced to pay the same $6/gallon price that they had been paying. Probably an equilibrium would have been reached before this. Let's say this happened around $150 barrel. So now all the gas consumers throughout the industrialized nations would be paying roughly the same $4.50/gallon. Would American's object to this? I think so. My point is we can criticize other countries' high fuel tax policies but it has led to increased conservation on their parts, which has benefited us.
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well, that is PART of the picture, it's true. To be precise, the FJ hit the streets the same time as TWO models that saved gas, the Camry hybrid and the Yaris, rated at 40 mpg. In addition to that, Toyota's two volume models are Corolla (rated 41 mpg, 350K sales per year) and the 4-cylinder Camry, rated at 33 mpg in the new model (and good for roughly 340K sales per year in the 4-cyl configuration). Meanwhile, they hope to sell 50K FJ's per year, I believe it is? However, carmakers will continue to make trucks bigger and bigger to get around CAFE, and if Bush has his way with the car standards, will probably abandon small cars outright in favor of the large cars that will now have their own lower fuel economy standard, and are more profitable, after all. In the rest of the world, sky-high gas taxes have caused them to structure their societies around walking and extensive, excellent public transportation. That did not happen overnight, and is why I do not advocate raising gas taxes overnight in the U.S. If we adopted a 20-40 year course of raising them, now that might be a good thing. boaz: why NOT ask people to stay home more? Americans as a group have some of the largest most luxurious homes in the world, with endless channels of video entertainment available at the touch of a button! Not to mention, we sure could use the space on the streets.  As for other solutions to our problems, we could try diesel, sure. We could somehow fix CAFE to make all the cars and trucks get 50 mpg (still running on refined oil products of course, let's not forget that!  ). We could try hybrids, we could try alt fuels, we could even make a proper attempt at the ethanol thing, which is currently dead in the water - who cares if half the fleet runs on E85 when you can't buy it at gas stations? We are still avoiding the PRIMARY PROBLEM: we as Americans have a society and a lifestyle structured to consume WAY TOO MUCH ENERGY. Not a small problem, and not one with a quick fix, but one that gets more urgent with every passing decade. There will be such an ENORMOUS cost to our grandchildren for our follies today. 
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Replying to: nippononly (May 04, 2006 6:19 am) When you look at our National debt it boggles the mind. Our National debt has gone up every year for over 65 years, except one year, 1959. That does not include our personal debt level in this country. Will our children and grandchildren carry on the tradition? Will it ever end? Maybe when the oil truly runs out. I don't see CAFE doing anything to slow down our consumption level. I agree that a slow raising of the gas tax may be a solution. |
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I think its simple . Introduce diesel to the usa . Roll it out and mandate it to be offered by each car company in each class segment . Swith to ethonal blends on the unleaded gas side . Slowly move up the cafe standards for both diesel and gas . This is the way to move foward . I want to buy a jeep patriot , I would buy a diesel version in a heart beat if it was offered , I'm sure alot of others would too
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Replying to: gljvd (May 16, 2006 11:52 pm) This is the way to move foward Define moving forward. We use about 20 million barrels of oil a day right now. This increases by about 1 1/2 to 2 percent each year. So at the current rate we will be burning about 24 mbd in 10 years. If in 10 years, through higher CAFE, we are only burning 22 mbd would that be considered moving forward? I agree that expanded use of diesel would have a significant impact on increasing fleet fuel efficiency but I really don't think that is the goal. Reduced fuel consumption is the goal, which is fuel efficiency multiplied by miles driven. Addressing only one component of the equation will not be the most effective approach. In fact, increased fuel efficiency will actually serve to increase miles driven, which offsets some of the gains. CAFE has been conclusively proven to be a flawed approach. Why does anyone still support it? |
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Replying to: gljvd (May 16, 2006 11:52 pm) Nippon, ask people to stay at home and not travel? I imagine half of the economy of California is based on tourists. And half of our fuel usage is in other forms other than motor fuel. Our fuel usage in the airlines must be staggering besides. I remember after 911 the grounded the airlines and my fuel prices in our area at least dropped 40 cents a gallon. But you are correct, there has to be a change in mindset.
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Replying to: boaz47 (May 18, 2006 7:07 pm) |
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yes, the mix of things we refine crude oil into is strictly our choice. The current mix reflects the current demand. If air travel were to skyrocket, you would see refinery demands for jet fuel rise, and the price at the pump go up accordingly. Ditto the demand for heating oil if we get an especially cold winter. Gas for cars is in a squeeze. I don't see gas prices coming down much any time soon. Here in California, election season has heated up in the TV ads with two candidates battling it out over increasing gas taxes to combat this problem, which one candidate advocates and the other opposes.
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Replying to: nippononly (May 19, 2006 6:57 am) |
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