Last post on Mar 21, 2012 at 9:47 AM
You are in the Automotive News & Views-Archives
What is this discussion about?
#1 of 369 Rank the Big 4: Ford, GM, Toyota, Chrysler. Best? Worst?
Jan 23, 2006 (3:26 pm)
I'm hearing a lot of people sayin' Ford is better off, GM is better off than Ford.
Who is making the most progress? Who is gonna be #1 in 10 years?
Who is falling off the map? Who will regroup in 5 years and gain share?
Will Nissan or Honda get to 15% of the market?
Will GM/Ford's restructuring take them down over 5 years, to lead to a rebirth in 2010? Will they become smaller, faster, more flexible?
Will GM focus more on China, as they have assumed a leadership position there, and that market is growing to soon become the #1 world's market?
Will Ford's CUV/Hybrid push get them out of the doldrums?
Will F-150 fight off the new Silverado, and protect a huge fallout at Ford?
Will Chevy stay #1 in cars over Ford? Can Ford fight back?
How strong is Chrysler? +5% last year. Are they America's version of Toyota? Will they pass Ford too?
Let's let it out, people! Don't keep it bottled up inside. That ain't right.
Jan 23, 2006 (4:00 pm)
Chrysler will pass Ford in the U.S. at this rate. They have been working hard enough with their product to deserve this milestone, too.
GM and Ford? This is really just the battle to the death in large trucks. Most of their other product is fringe, fading in relevance in the U.S. and NEVER relevant in the rest of the world.
I predict GM will rapidly crank up production in China in the next few years and milk it for all it's worth in order to reduce costs, so its chances for resurgence in 5-10 years are better than Ford's.
F-150 will NOT fight off the new Silverado - the full-size GM truck already outsells the F-150 if you include the rebadged versions in the total. GM will dominate here, and I expect it to lock down even tighter the full-size SUV segment, which is (unfortunately for GM) shrinking fast.
What else did you ask? Neither Nissan nor Honda will reach 15%, no. Honda doesn't have the resources to do this, and Nissan is too upsy-downsy in quality to make its new strategy of "kill 'em with surplus horsepower" fully effective.
Toyota will be the number one manufacturer in the world in the next couple three years, I expect. I kinda think they will pass either Ford or Chrysler Group in the U.S. too (maybe both? long odds though), but I am not so sure of the timeline there. GM is a big icon to topple in terms of sales, especially with the very large volumes it sends to fleets. I expect it to stay firmly number one in sales in the U.S., although in retail sales Toyota will probably pull ahead.
Hey don't forget: in the last weeks GM's stock has been up-rated, even as Ford's has sunk even further, right? Maybe these stock analysts don't know squat, but MAYBE they are shrewder than we think. I say GM up, Ford down, in a decade. That is the time line we are focusing on here, right?
#3 of 369 So how are you ranking the Top 4 by say...2010?
Jan 23, 2006 (4:15 pm)
1. GM at 20%
2. Toyota at 18%
3. Chrysler at 16%
4. Ford at 15%
#4 of 369 Re: So how are you ranking the Top 4 by say...2010? [callmedrfill]
Jan 23, 2006 (4:20 pm)
Wow, I hadn't really crystallized numbers in my head, but if I were to do so, they would be pretty darn close to those, doc! Maybe Toyota 17%, Chrysler 15%, with the other two the same.
Which means it is only a few short years until the original Big 3 control less than half the U.S. market.
And I think the numbers you have there will be fairly stable. Honda and Nissan will nip at Toyota's heels too much for it to advance much beyond there in market share, while the spiral downwards for Ford and GM will finally stop around that point.
#5 of 369 Re: yeah [nippononly]
Jan 23, 2006 (5:20 pm)
I think you forgot about Europe when you mentioned Ford's irrelevance in the rest of the world. It's not a growing market, but Ford has potential for growth into higher profit segments there.
#6 of 369 Yeah, and I didn't mention 'Yota's aspirations in Europe either.
Jan 23, 2006 (5:28 pm)
So let's not take our biases too far. Back to a neutral corner.
From that NBC special, I think Chrysler has something in the Caliber. It's a step up from the Neon anyway. Can't lose thur!
#7 of 369 Re: yeah [carlisimo]
Jan 23, 2006 (9:45 pm)
Heck, Ford has potential for growth into higher profit segments RIGHT HERE in the good ol' U.S. of A! At any time in the last decade or more, they could have chosen to FINALLY take the Lincoln marque seriously again. The best we got was the LS, which wasn't bad, but was almost instantly passed by the market.
No, I didn't forget Europe.
#8 of 369 my take
Jan 24, 2006 (7:55 am)
Difficult question to answer. Do you look at sales, profits, utilization of capacity, who has the best looking cars?
If so, I'd say Toyota wins in 3 of those 4 categories.
Over the next 10 years, the challenge for Ford and GM is to execute on the plans they have recently laid out for recovery. All the while continueing to preserve (at a minimum) market share and gain some with the new upcoming models.
Chrysler needs to maintain the buzz they have generate over the last several years with their sucessful products like the PT Cruiser and 300. I still think Chrysler is fighting the poor quality stigma from years past.
I don't think Toyota will ever overtake any of them for overall US market share leader. Fleet sales will save the Big 2.5 there.
I do think there's hope, particularly on the Ford side. The will not let the truck market go without a fight. Same with the Explorer. Of course if gas prices keep going up, it may be out of their hands. But the Fusion is a decent entry in the market, with a few life cycle tweaks it could be a competitor, and there is lots of potential at Lincoln. Similar to Caddy, they've got to reinvent themselves in the eyes of younger buyers that would normally go European or high end Japanese.
#9 of 369 A hint of market share this year
Jan 24, 2006 (9:27 pm)
Domestic Auto Sales Drop Sharply in January
(AXcess News) New York - According to the latest report on domestic auto sales by J.D. Power & Associates, US auto makers saw an 11 percent decline in retail sales through the first 15 days of January when compared to the same time period a year ago.
GM and Ford retail sales declined when compared to early January 2005 with GM down 28 percent and Ford down 25 percent. DaimlerChrysler was also down 13 percent when compared to the same period in 2005. Among the nine multi-franchise new-vehicle manufacturers, Hyundai and Toyota have had the best retail performance thus far in January. Retail sales for Hyundai were up 19 percent and Toyota Motor retail sales were up 9 percent compared to the first half of January 2005.
In addition to the retail sales increase, Toyota had the highest retail share in the industry for the first 15 days of the month -- up 3.4 points versus a year ago to 18.8 percent. The domestic manufacturers follow Toyota with GM at 17.5 percent (down 4.2 points versus a year ago) and Ford Motor Company at 14.7 percent (down 2.8 points). DaimlerChrysler also saw a decline in the first 15 days of January to 12.8 percent (down 0.3 points). In contrast, American Honda, Nissan and Hyundai have all increased market share versus a year ago, with American Honda at 12.3 percent (up 1.4 points), Nissan at 8.6 percent (up 0.7 point) and Hyundai at 5.7 percent (up 1.4 points).
Jan 24, 2006 (11:27 pm)
Similar reports have been coming out since the end of the Employee Price Wars, and with Toyota releasing the IS, LS, ES, Camry, Tundra, Rav4, and FJ Cruiser this year alone, this snowball could well turn into an avalanche!
I'm surprised that Honda ia almost at 13%. I don't know why though.
I guess the Sonata redesign has been a success! Wonder how the next Elantra will turn out.