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Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? - READ ONLY

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#5 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [uzless] by gagrice

Dec 16, 2005 (10:55 pm)

Replying to: uzless (Dec 16, 2005 9:09 pm)
I expect to do at least as well in the HCH-II.
 
My question to you. Will you be satisfied driving the HCH instead of your hotrod HAH? Seems like going backward comfort & performance wise.

#7 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [uzless] by warner

Dec 17, 2005 (10:50 am)

Replying to: uzless (Dec 16, 2005 9:09 pm)
Your argument has 2 misconceptions:
 a - 'HCH trim level is most comparable to LX' - it isn't. It's comparable to the EX (you trade off 4 wheel disc brakes and the sunroof, but gain 15mpg, auto climate control, turn signals in the side mirrors, and a couple of other goodies (spoiler, etc). Not to mention significantly less pollution with SULEV (LX, EX) vs PZEV (Hybrid). Now, let's talk roughly $19.5 vs 22,400.
  
If you really believe that climate control and turn signals in the mirrors is equivalent to 4-wheel disc brakes and a one-touch power moon roof, that’s fine. I wouldn’t make that trade personally, but I’ll accept that as valid. The mileage differences are the topic of this conversation, so you can’t say that’s an extra feature on the Hybrid. If you think the spoiler is an equal trade for the 16” alloy wheels that are on the EX, that’s fine too. Another trade I would never make. The spoiler can be added to the EX for a LOT less money than the 16” alloys could be added to the Hybrid. (and the Hybrid wheels are probably the ugliest wheels I’ve ever seen….but that’s opinion and shouldn’t be figured in to this discussion; we’re here to compare facts, not opinions). The only features that the Hybrid has over the LX are the Remote trunk release, 2 extra speakers and steering wheel controls, the climate control, and a $280 spoiler, and it doesn’t even have the 16” wheels of the LX. How much are those worth? That’s a matter of opinion. The EX does not add climate control to the LX, but adds everything else that the Hybrid adds PLUS 4-wheel disk brakes (how much are THOSE worth?), alloy wheels (at least $600 on the internet, not the crazy dealer prices), and a power moon roof (how much to install one of those again?).
 
b.- 'HCH can be only be had at MSRP + $2000'. I can tell you that I have a signed order at a local dealer in IL for a non-Navi '06 HCH at MSRP. The enterprising individual can go to Mark Roberts Honda in OK, and get one for MSRP minus $1500. Check it out. Just because you live in an area that charges a premium for a hybrid doesn't mean you have to buy the car locally. So - with those two things alone, we've narrowed the delta to roughly $2975, EX vs hybrid. (MSRP, no driving to Oklahoma to pick up a car, but if you did, the difference is all the way down to approx $1500).
 
While I did not say that the Hybrid could ONLY be had at $2,000 plus MSRP, according to www.carsdirect.com that is what MOST people are paying for the car. They also say that MOST people are paying full MSRP for the EX, so those are the numbers that I used for the comparison. I find it interesting that you choose to compare the Hybrid’s price where most people aren’t buying it (cheaper than most pay), but choose to price the EX at the TOP price that anyone could pay for it. Do you really think that those are real-world numbers? It certainly seems that you are manipulating the numbers in favor of the Hybrid. What could one buy an EX for if they shopped all over the country? Isn’t it fairer to compare numbers that way?
   
Now, let's figure in the tax credit...
While the IRS figures haven't been released yet for the new tax credit, estimates are coming in about $1750-$2100 for this car. I used $2000 for my figures .
 
Your tax credit numbers are probably correct….and I also gave $2,000 for that.
 
Now let's figure the savings (or, 'payback' in your analogy). This will increase with more miles driven per year. People who put miles on their car are prime candidates for hybrids. I average 25K mi/yr for the last 6 years, over 3 cars (my current one is an Accord Hybrid)
  
So...if I drive 25K mi/yr, and pay 2.50/gal for gas, I've saved $535/yr by driving the hybrid. Payback occurs in 5.5yrs for me (granted, I drive a lot of miles - but not as many as some people). 137,000mi to 'break even'
Increase the cost of gas to $3.00, and payback occurs in 4.6 years ($642/yr). At that point, I have just about 115K mi on the car.
 
Even with all the numbers skewed unrealistically in favor of the Hybrid, you STILL have to drive the car more than 100,000 miles to BREAK EVEN? How many people are going to keep their cars that long? And here’s a real pertinent question for you….what do you think the resale value will be on a 4-5 year old Hybrid vehicle with over 100,000 miles on it, with the batteries well out of warranty (unless you live in CA)? I wouldn’t buy one for that reason ALONE, even if it were the same price as an EX.
  
And...in 4-5 years, I think we're going to be reminiscing on $3.00 gas as 'cheap', the same way everyone is about the 'new normal' - $2.25 - $2.50. Unfortunately, a year ago, 'normal' was about $1.85/gal.
  
Pure speculation. I can’t say you’re wrong, but you can’t say you’re right. And in 4-5 years, new technology will be available that will obsolete your Hybrid. It may be a gass-guzzler at that point in time, with over 100,000 miles on it and a questionable battery life left in it. Not for me, thanks.
 
That's not a bad return, in my book. Thanks to the new tax bill, the HCH is comparable in cost to an EX, for me.
 
With HEAVILY manipulated numbers, and the notion that the Hybrid is on the same trim level as the EX, and you driving it over 100,000 miles….let’s not forget to mention those small details. Oh, and while we're at it, let's not mention the extra cost of financing that extra several thousand dollars either, okay? Or do you think that most Hybrid buyers are just paying cash for their vehicles?
 
Will I get 50mpg per gallon ? Well, given that I get better than the EPA combined for my HAH (34mpg), I expect to do at least as well in the HCH-II.
 
I never questioned the mileage numbers. It was not part of the discussion.
  
So, you see...I'd like to thank you. I had debated in my head about perhaps purchasing an LX/EX vs. the hybrid. Your post prompted me to do the math and confirm that the hybrid was the right choice for me...again. That is, as long as I hold onto the car for the 4-5yrs total. But even if I don't - have you seen residuals on hybrids lately ? I've seen examples of appreciation, vs. depreciation (not saying this will be typical, but if current trends continue, I think depreciation rates will be greatly reduced for the most fuel-efficient hybrids).
 
You’re free to make that choice. It would be interesting to fast-forward 4 or 5 years and over a hundred thousand miles to see if your opinion has changed. The type of people who buy whiz-bang technology are going to continue to do that. Which spells trouble for a 4-5 year old hybrid vehicle with over 100,000 miles on it because in 4-5 years their whiz-bang hybrid won’t be so whiz-bang anymore.

#8 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [warner] by xcel

Dec 18, 2005 (9:31 am)

Replying to: warner (Dec 17, 2005 10:50 am)
Hi Warner:
 
      A few intangibles … Because of the Trip A/B FCD’s (Fuel Consumption Displays) and Instantaneous’ in the HCH-II, it has the capability to reach the EPA and far beyond if the new driver is willing to learn from them. FCD feedback is truly a wonderful thing. A previously game gauge trained hypermiler could do very well in the non-hybrid Civic but will do spectacular with the HCH-II. 53/70 mpg from each as a guess. Even with the best FE results, the out of pocket $ would skew the decision towards the non-hybrid in that scenario? In the real world with the average driver, the non-hybrid will more then likely languish in the mid 20’s to low 30’s. This guesstimate is for the mixed City/Highway - middle distance (15 - 20 miles) driver. The hybrid can do wonders for that individual. The short haul driver’s? The Hybrid will more then likely never reach its potential let alone the lower yearly mile total skewing the $’s saved toward the less expensive Civic in that scenario … I am not saying the HCH-II’s FE cannot be driven into the ground because it easily can but with the FCD’s in front of you, at least you know how you are driving in real time and can make the appropriate adjustment(s) vs. the non-hybrid Civic driver attempting to figure out what they received when they place $25.00 into the tank. That particular he or she will probably have no clue as to what we are talking about because they do not know how to divide miles driven/gallons of fuel filled
 
Honda Civic - Please post your gas mileage
 
      Although you make a very good point about resale with the pack question at 150,000 + miles, the Insight and Prius I’s have been out for over 5 years and if the HCH-II/Prius II’s resale is anything like those 2 hybrids, the hybrid owners have nothing to worry about.
 
      And other reasons to purchase a hybrid … Some just do not like consuming as much oil given where some of it comes from or emitting as much from the tail pipe. For those individuals, the Hybrid kicks $$
 
      Someone posted above that the non-hybrid 06 Civic was an SULEV-II when it’s actually a ULEV-II. Honda could have made the non-hybrid just as clean but chose not too One more notch down the board but still very clean.
 
      Good Luck
 
      Wayne R. Gerdes

#9 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [xcel] by warner

Dec 18, 2005 (12:12 pm)

Replying to: xcel (Dec 18, 2005 9:31 am)
Hi Warner:
  
      A few intangibles … Because of the Trip A/B FCD’s (Fuel Consumption Displays) and Instantaneous’ in the HCH-II, it has the capability to reach the EPA and far beyond if the new driver is willing to learn from them. FCD feedback is truly a wonderful thing. A previously game gauge trained hypermiler could do very well in the non-hybrid Civic but will do spectacular with the HCH-II. 53/70 mpg from each as a guess. Even with the best FE results, the out of pocket $ would skew the decision towards the non-hybrid in that scenario? In the real world with the average driver, the non-hybrid will more then likely languish in the mid 20’s to low 30’s. This guesstimate is for the mixed City/Highway - middle distance (15 - 20 miles) driver. The hybrid can do wonders for that individual. The short haul driver’s? The Hybrid will more then likely never reach its potential let alone the lower yearly mile total skewing the $’s saved toward the less expensive Civic in that scenario…. I am not saying the HCH-II’s FE cannot be driven into the ground because it easily can but with the FCD’s in front of you, at least you know how you are driving in real time and can make the appropriate adjustment(s) vs. the non-hybrid Civic driver attempting to figure out what they received when they place $25.00 into the tank. That particular he or she will probably have no clue as to what we are talking about because they do not know how to divide miles driven/gallons of fuel filled
 
Wayne, I don’t doubt that an educated and disciplined driver (aka Hyper-miler) can achieve greater than EPA estimates, likely even more above EPA estimate in a Hybrid than they could in a non-Hybrid. This goes beyond just having the gauges, though….it also involves a decision to change one’s driving style drastically. Obviously, someone’s decision to drive that way probably would affect my comparison which was based upon averages and standard test methods (EPA). My postings were directed at the AVERAGE buyer of either vehicle, not a specialty driver. As far as what the average driver will get in a non-hybrid, I can tell you that the 41,000 mile average that I got from my ’04 Civic LX 5-speed was 35mpg (for the record, that was EXACTLY between the city/highway EPA estimates for that vehicle), and believe me when I tell you that I am FAR from a hyper-miler in my driving style. I accelerate quickly and speed my butt off. My typical 20 mile commute to work almost always involves speeds around 80mph for as much of the trip as possible, and when that isn’t possible that means I’m in heavy traffic (stop-and-go), so my mileage would suffer even worse in that. And I hope that you are wrong (or joking) about people’s ability to figure their FE. I would hope that ANY driver of ANY car would be able to divide the number of miles by number of gallons if they so desired. I certainly don’t need a built-in computer to do simple division…..nor does my 10 year old son.
 
   
      Although you make a very good point about resale with the pack question at 150,000 + miles, the Insight and Prius I’s have been out for over 5 years and if the HCH-II/Prius II’s resale is anything like those 2 hybrids, the hybrid owners have nothing to worry about.
 
You could be right….it was just a question that remains to be proven out one way or another. Personally, I would not buy such a vehicle with mileage that was beyond the warranty on such an expensive part. Others may have differing opinions. Either way time will tell.
  
      And other reasons to purchase a hybrid … Some just do not like consuming as much oil given where some of it comes from or emitting as much from the tail pipe. For those individuals, the Hybrid kicks $$
 
I don’t fault anyone for buying a Hybrid (or any other car for that matter) for personal reasons. My initial post was directed towards those who were considering which vehicle to get based on cost, not emotion or personal tastes.
 
      Someone posted above that the non-hybrid 06 Civic was an SULEV-II when it’s actually a ULEV-II. Honda could have made the non-hybrid just as clean but chose not too One more notch down the board but still very clean.
 
I knew that the non-hybrid was not a SULEV-II…that was not my post and it was not a factor in the criteria of my original post.
 
                      Warner

#10 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [warner] by thegraduate

Dec 18, 2005 (10:37 pm)

Replying to: warner (Dec 17, 2005 10:50 am)
The spoiler can be added to the EX for a LOT less money than the 16” alloys could be added to the Hybrid. (and the Hybrid wheels are probably the ugliest wheels I’ve ever seen….but that’s opinion and shouldn’t be figured in to this discussion; we’re here to compare facts, not opinions
 
The wheels on the Hybrid, like those of the little Insight, are designed to be more aerodynamically efficient than those (albeit more stylish) rims on the EX (or wheelcovers from the LX). They produce less aerodynamic drag. You should know, that while the EX is designed more to a style standpoint, the Hybrid is designed to a function (electric A/C that allows the gas engine to shut-off and still cool the interior, the spoiler isn't for looks, but to make the car more efficient). The list goes on...

#11 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [thegraduate] by warner

Dec 19, 2005 (6:11 am)

Replying to: thegraduate (Dec 18, 2005 10:37 pm)
The wheels on the Hybrid, like those of the little Insight, are designed to be more aerodynamically efficient than those (albeit more stylish) rims on the EX (or wheelcovers from the LX). They produce less aerodynamic drag. You should know, that while the EX is designed more to a style standpoint, the Hybrid is designed to a function (electric A/C that allows the gas engine to shut-off and still cool the interior, the spoiler isn't for looks, but to make the car more efficient). The list goes on...
 
Understood. I realize that there are MANY technical differences between the two cars. I believe that's WHY the Hybrid has the 15" wheels...because the low-rolling-resistance tires are only available in 15" size. The technical differences were not a factor in this discussion, but I was aware of some or most of them. The fact that they are there does not change any of the facts of the thread. I hope that I don't come off as an a**hole or sound negative towards the hybrid in my posts. I'm just convinced that it doesn't make financial sense to buy a hybrid today.
 
                     Warner

#12 of 34 Just one question about break -even by midnightcowboy

Dec 19, 2005 (8:00 am)

If you like manual transmissions when does the CVT only hybrid ever break even ?
 
I just ordered a Civic Si in Rallye Red. I don't think I could ever ever break even with the fun of manual shifting, the performance, the handling and the pure pleasure of driving.
 
In some cases there just isn't a possible break-even. I guess that is why there are so many different types of vehicles, because each person has different wants and needs.
 
Financially, I have analyzed and over-analyzed the cost savings of hybrids for a long, long time. And my specailization was linear programing, probability and statistics. From a pure financial point a hybrid is not a sound investment, but there are many other reasons to justify a hybrid. In most cases they have more advanced features and even instanteous mileage meters ( even though a 442 I had back in the 60s had a vacuum gauge that had economy and a BMW M3 with instantaneous mpg, IS300 with instanteous mpg, most NAV systems have) seem to be the biggest gimmick people latch onto about saving money or hypermiling. XCEL is right, you can drive just about every car for mileage and meet or exceed EPA estimates. But you have to change you driving habits in most cases. It is very, very strange that people will change their driving habits when they get a hybrid with fuel computers and instantaneous mileage meter, when they could just as well begin conserving with their existing vehicle.
 
Anyway, good luck with your hybrid Honda Civic CVT. I sure you will enjoy it, just as much as I enjoy my 6-speed Accord Coupe and my soon to be 6-speed Civic Si.
 
Double sixes,
 
MidCow
 
P.S.- Why so the hybrids come is such drab colors? No Rallye Red, or Atomic Blue.

#13 of 34 add in brakes and oil changes and time by eaa

Mar 31, 2006 (3:23 pm)

I save on my 2003 HCH by getting 60+ mpg drivin smart, little brake wear, less oil changes with factory recommended 10,000 miles and less time stopped at gas stations.
  The cleaner air doesn't pay me directly but is precious, the reduced imported terrorist oil for oil changes and gas fill ups is priceless. The encouragement to Honda to make EVen better hybrids is paying for Everyone. Each new model gets better. Just like PCs and Cell phones we will soon get 100+ mpg and never need oil changes.
   Whats the payback on big fancy RIMS ? On leather seats ? On a monster sterio on a fancy paint job etc. Hybrid really pay off every mile.

#14 of 34 A few points by ny1911

Mar 31, 2006 (6:35 pm)

I own a company that does work in both the hybrid vehicle and renewable energy industries. Here are a few truisms within both industries:
 
1. As the OP demnstrated, the paybacks from a financial perspective are currently unattractive.
2. People that buy into hybrids, solar, etc, do so for a few separate reasons: they want to spend their money that way, they place a premium on environmental concerns or they want to hedge against a dramatic increase in conventional fuel cost.
3. Consumers are uneasy with change. If we said gas would rise to $4/gallon and stabilize there for 20 years, folks would adjust their habits and budgets and drive the vehicle of their choice. When folks see gas go up $0.25 in a few days, they react as if they project that increase to a limitless price...human nature again.
4. As we've seen here, anyone can justify their position by simply accepting a certain payback (or not) or taking the most favorable sets of numbers. That's human nature, but not totally objective.
 
I just bought an LX over a hybrid. I'm wary of the battery issues (which are another environmental concern). We acknowledge in the industry that the hybrid is a transitional platform that draws heavily on evolving battery and power electronic technology. These present real reliability questions over the life of the vehicle and are sure to be significantly less expensive in the coming years. The Prius easily has the more sophisticated and clever drivetrain. It is, however, more expensive than the civic's. Only time will tell which one will prevail.

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