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Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? - READ ONLY

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#1 of 34 Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? by warner

Dec 16, 2005 (12:46 pm)

I had a discussion with one of my wife's co workers yesterday regarding how long it would take to recoup the price difference between a new Civic Hybrid versus a Civic LX. Here's what I came up with:
  
How long it takes to make up the price difference on a Hybrid
  The non-hybrid Civic is rated at 30 City/ 40 Highway. The Hybrid is rated at 50 both city and highway. So we’ll take the non-hybrid at an average of 35mpg and the Hybrid at 50mpg.
  The non-hybrid Civic model that the Hybrid most closely competes with is the LX model. The MSRP on the Hybrid is $22,400 and it is typically selling for $2,000 over MSRP, but there is also a tax credit for 2006 on Hybrid vehicles so we’ll call it a wash and say the Hybrid sells at MSRP. The LX model with automatic has an MSRP of $17,869 or $4,531 less than the Hybrid. Dealers are typically more willing to deal on the LX than they are on the Hybrid, but we’ll leave that out of this equation. So we’re starting with a $4,531 deficit for buying the Hybrid (again, not figuring in the extra finance charges on that money if one were financing the purchase).
  
So how long does it take to recoup our more than $4,500 deficit? Read on…..
 
If gas costs $2.50 a gallon here’s how much the Hybrid recovers at a given mileage:
 
At 50,000 miles the non-hybrid has used 1429 gallons of gas, which cost $3572 while the Hybrid has used 1000 gallons of gas, which cost $2500. The Hybrid has recovered $1,072 at this point.
  
At 100,000 miles, the Hybrid has recovered $2,142
  
At 150,000 miles, the Hybrid has recovered $3,216
  
At 200,000 miles, the Hybrid has recovered $4,288
  
At 250,000 miles, the Hybrid has recovered $5,360
  
So at $2.50 a gallon, we’d have to drive about 211,000 miles to break even
  
If gas costs $3 a gallon, here’s the numbers: (We break even around 176,000 miles)
 
At 50,000 miles, the Hybrid recovers $1,287
  
At 100,000 miles, the Hybrid recovers $2,574
  
At 150,000 miles, the Hybrid recovers $3,861
  
At 175,000 miles, the Hybrid recovers $4,505
  
At 200,000 miles, the Hybrid recovers $5,148
  
This is assuming the batteries last long enough to not be a factor in this comparison
 
                       Warner

#2 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [warner] by falconone

Dec 16, 2005 (12:59 pm)

Replying to: warner (Dec 16, 2005 12:46 pm)
What about the tax credit and additional features on the hybrid?
 
Since you have your calculator out, tell me how much additional money I will spend if I opt for a V8 over a V6 in the Grand Cherokee?
 
How about if instead of a C Class Mercedes, I buy a Honda Accord? Same equipment in the Accord, better ride, better reliability. Your argument makes NO sense.
 
People buy what they are happy with. Leave it at that.

#3 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [falconone] by warner

Dec 16, 2005 (1:32 pm)

Replying to: falconone (Dec 16, 2005 12:59 pm)
What about the tax credit and additional features on the hybrid?
 
I mentioned the tax credit in calculating the cost of the car. As far as additional features, which ones are you referring to?
 
Since you have your calculator out, tell me how much additional money I will spend if I opt for a V8 over a V6 in the Grand Cherokee?
 
I don't know because those vehicles are not what I was comparing. I'm sure you could do the math on those two vehicles if those were ones that you were considering buying. In fact, one could do this for ANY two vehicles that they wanted to compare. I was comparing the two Honda Civic models. The discussion that I had with my wife's co-worker went like this:
 
Co-worker "Hey, Kristina told me you bought a new car"
 
Me - "Yeah, I bought a 2006 Civic"
 
Co-worker "Did you buy the Hybrid?"
 
Me - "No, I couldn't justify the additional cost. I think it would take about 200,000 miles just to break even"
 
Co-worker "No way! Do the math on it and you'll see that within 2 years you'd be broken even on it"
 
Me - "Okay, I'll do the math and get back to you tomorrow"
 
So I did the math and I'm going to get back to him today. I thought others on here might want to see how it all breaks down. Sorry if the numbers do not look favorable to you.
 
  
How about if instead of a C Class Mercedes, I buy a Honda Accord? Same equipment in the Accord, better ride, better reliability. Your argument makes NO sense.
 
I was not comparing a Mercedes to an Accord. I was comparing a Civic to a Civic. Besides the obvious technological differences, the vehicles ride and perform almost identically. It's as close to an apples-to-apples comparison as one could make.
 
  
People buy what they are happy with. Leave it at that.
 
I didn't tell anyone what to buy or not buy. I simply posted numbers so they could make a more informed decision about what they wanted.
 
                          Warner

#4 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [warner] by uzless

Dec 16, 2005 (9:09 pm)

Replying to: warner (Dec 16, 2005 12:46 pm)
Your argument has 2 misconceptions:
 
a - 'HCH trim level is most comparable to LX' - it isn't. It's comparable to the EX (you trade off 4 wheel disc brakes and the sunroof, but gain 15mpg, auto climate control, turn signals in the side mirrors, and a couple of other goodies (spoiler, etc). Not to mention significantly less pollution with SULEV (LX, EX) vs PZEV (Hybrid). Now, let's talk roughly $19.5 vs 22,400.
 
b.- 'HCH can be only be had at MSRP + $2000'. I can tell you that I have a signed order at a local dealer in IL for a non-Navi '06 HCH at MSRP. The enterprising individual can go to Mark Roberts Honda in OK, and get one for MSRP minus $1500. Check it out. Just because you live in an area that charges a premium for a hybrid doesn't mean you have to buy the car locally.
 
So - with those two things alone, we've narrowed the delta to roughly $2975, EX vs hybrid. (MSRP, no driving to Oklahoma to pick up a car, but if you did, the difference is all the way down to approx $1500).
 
Now, let's figure in the tax credit...
While the IRS figures haven't been released yet for the new tax credit, estimates are coming in about $1750-$2100 for this car. I used $2000 for my figures, since that's what I got as a deduction for last January's HAH purchase (nets about $650, according to my preliminary figures in TurboTax; the '06 credit will net the full amount).
 
Now let's figure the savings (or, 'payback' in your analogy). This will increase with more miles driven per year. People who put miles on their car are prime candidates for hybrids. I average 25K mi/yr for the last 6 years, over 3 cars (my current one is an Accord Hybrid, btw).
 
So...if I drive 25K mi/yr, and pay 2.50/gal for gas, I've saved $535/yr by driving the hybrid. Payback occurs in 5.5yrs for me (granted, I drive a lot of miles - but not as many as some people). 137,000mi to 'break even'
Increase the cost of gas to $3.00, and payback occurs in 4.6 years ($642/yr). At that point, I have just about 115K mi on the car.
 
And...in 4-5 years, I think we're going to be reminiscing on $3.00 gas as 'cheap', the same way everyone is about the 'new normal' - $2.25 - $2.50. Unfortunately, a year ago, 'normal' was about $1.85/gal.
 
That's not a bad return, in my book. Thanks to the new tax bill, the HCH is comparable in cost to an EX, for me.
 
Will I get 50mpg per gallon ? Well, given that I get better than the EPA combined for my HAH (34mpg), I expect to do at least as well in the HCH-II. And I don't have the overhead of 6 cylinders firing up, plus I can coax EV mode at will in the stop-n-slow traffic I face daily. So really, I'll be disappointed if I don't see somewhere in the neighborhood of EPA in the winter, and EPA + 15-20% in the summer (I've done that this past summer)
 
So, you see...I'd like to thank you. I had debated in my head about perhaps purchasing an LX/EX vs. the hybrid. Your post prompted me to do the math and confirm that the hybrid was the right choice for me...again
 
That is, as long as I hold onto the car for the 4-5yrs total. But even if I don't - have you seen residuals on hybrids lately ? I've seen examples of appreciation, vs. depreciation (not saying this will be typical, but if current trends continue, I think depreciation rates will be greatly reduced for the most fuel-efficient hybrids).

#5 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [uzless] by gagrice

Dec 16, 2005 (10:55 pm)

Replying to: uzless (Dec 16, 2005 9:09 pm)
I expect to do at least as well in the HCH-II.
 
My question to you. Will you be satisfied driving the HCH instead of your hotrod HAH? Seems like going backward comfort & performance wise.

#7 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [uzless] by warner

Dec 17, 2005 (10:50 am)

Replying to: uzless (Dec 16, 2005 9:09 pm)
Your argument has 2 misconceptions:
 a - 'HCH trim level is most comparable to LX' - it isn't. It's comparable to the EX (you trade off 4 wheel disc brakes and the sunroof, but gain 15mpg, auto climate control, turn signals in the side mirrors, and a couple of other goodies (spoiler, etc). Not to mention significantly less pollution with SULEV (LX, EX) vs PZEV (Hybrid). Now, let's talk roughly $19.5 vs 22,400.
  
If you really believe that climate control and turn signals in the mirrors is equivalent to 4-wheel disc brakes and a one-touch power moon roof, that’s fine. I wouldn’t make that trade personally, but I’ll accept that as valid. The mileage differences are the topic of this conversation, so you can’t say that’s an extra feature on the Hybrid. If you think the spoiler is an equal trade for the 16” alloy wheels that are on the EX, that’s fine too. Another trade I would never make. The spoiler can be added to the EX for a LOT less money than the 16” alloys could be added to the Hybrid. (and the Hybrid wheels are probably the ugliest wheels I’ve ever seen….but that’s opinion and shouldn’t be figured in to this discussion; we’re here to compare facts, not opinions). The only features that the Hybrid has over the LX are the Remote trunk release, 2 extra speakers and steering wheel controls, the climate control, and a $280 spoiler, and it doesn’t even have the 16” wheels of the LX. How much are those worth? That’s a matter of opinion. The EX does not add climate control to the LX, but adds everything else that the Hybrid adds PLUS 4-wheel disk brakes (how much are THOSE worth?), alloy wheels (at least $600 on the internet, not the crazy dealer prices), and a power moon roof (how much to install one of those again?).
 
b.- 'HCH can be only be had at MSRP + $2000'. I can tell you that I have a signed order at a local dealer in IL for a non-Navi '06 HCH at MSRP. The enterprising individual can go to Mark Roberts Honda in OK, and get one for MSRP minus $1500. Check it out. Just because you live in an area that charges a premium for a hybrid doesn't mean you have to buy the car locally. So - with those two things alone, we've narrowed the delta to roughly $2975, EX vs hybrid. (MSRP, no driving to Oklahoma to pick up a car, but if you did, the difference is all the way down to approx $1500).
 
While I did not say that the Hybrid could ONLY be had at $2,000 plus MSRP, according to www.carsdirect.com that is what MOST people are paying for the car. They also say that MOST people are paying full MSRP for the EX, so those are the numbers that I used for the comparison. I find it interesting that you choose to compare the Hybrid’s price where most people aren’t buying it (cheaper than most pay), but choose to price the EX at the TOP price that anyone could pay for it. Do you really think that those are real-world numbers? It certainly seems that you are manipulating the numbers in favor of the Hybrid. What could one buy an EX for if they shopped all over the country? Isn’t it fairer to compare numbers that way?
   
Now, let's figure in the tax credit...
While the IRS figures haven't been released yet for the new tax credit, estimates are coming in about $1750-$2100 for this car. I used $2000 for my figures .
 
Your tax credit numbers are probably correct….and I also gave $2,000 for that.
 
Now let's figure the savings (or, 'payback' in your analogy). This will increase with more miles driven per year. People who put miles on their car are prime candidates for hybrids. I average 25K mi/yr for the last 6 years, over 3 cars (my current one is an Accord Hybrid)
  
So...if I drive 25K mi/yr, and pay 2.50/gal for gas, I've saved $535/yr by driving the hybrid. Payback occurs in 5.5yrs for me (granted, I drive a lot of miles - but not as many as some people). 137,000mi to 'break even'
Increase the cost of gas to $3.00, and payback occurs in 4.6 years ($642/yr). At that point, I have just about 115K mi on the car.
 
Even with all the numbers skewed unrealistically in favor of the Hybrid, you STILL have to drive the car more than 100,000 miles to BREAK EVEN? How many people are going to keep their cars that long? And here’s a real pertinent question for you….what do you think the resale value will be on a 4-5 year old Hybrid vehicle with over 100,000 miles on it, with the batteries well out of warranty (unless you live in CA)? I wouldn’t buy one for that reason ALONE, even if it were the same price as an EX.
  
And...in 4-5 years, I think we're going to be reminiscing on $3.00 gas as 'cheap', the same way everyone is about the 'new normal' - $2.25 - $2.50. Unfortunately, a year ago, 'normal' was about $1.85/gal.
  
Pure speculation. I can’t say you’re wrong, but you can’t say you’re right. And in 4-5 years, new technology will be available that will obsolete your Hybrid. It may be a gass-guzzler at that point in time, with over 100,000 miles on it and a questionable battery life left in it. Not for me, thanks.
 
That's not a bad return, in my book. Thanks to the new tax bill, the HCH is comparable in cost to an EX, for me.
 
With HEAVILY manipulated numbers, and the notion that the Hybrid is on the same trim level as the EX, and you driving it over 100,000 miles….let’s not forget to mention those small details. Oh, and while we're at it, let's not mention the extra cost of financing that extra several thousand dollars either, okay? Or do you think that most Hybrid buyers are just paying cash for their vehicles?
 
Will I get 50mpg per gallon ? Well, given that I get better than the EPA combined for my HAH (34mpg), I expect to do at least as well in the HCH-II.
 
I never questioned the mileage numbers. It was not part of the discussion.
  
So, you see...I'd like to thank you. I had debated in my head about perhaps purchasing an LX/EX vs. the hybrid. Your post prompted me to do the math and confirm that the hybrid was the right choice for me...again. That is, as long as I hold onto the car for the 4-5yrs total. But even if I don't - have you seen residuals on hybrids lately ? I've seen examples of appreciation, vs. depreciation (not saying this will be typical, but if current trends continue, I think depreciation rates will be greatly reduced for the most fuel-efficient hybrids).
 
You’re free to make that choice. It would be interesting to fast-forward 4 or 5 years and over a hundred thousand miles to see if your opinion has changed. The type of people who buy whiz-bang technology are going to continue to do that. Which spells trouble for a 4-5 year old hybrid vehicle with over 100,000 miles on it because in 4-5 years their whiz-bang hybrid won’t be so whiz-bang anymore.

#8 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [warner] by xcel

Dec 18, 2005 (9:31 am)

Replying to: warner (Dec 17, 2005 10:50 am)
Hi Warner:
 
      A few intangibles … Because of the Trip A/B FCD’s (Fuel Consumption Displays) and Instantaneous’ in the HCH-II, it has the capability to reach the EPA and far beyond if the new driver is willing to learn from them. FCD feedback is truly a wonderful thing. A previously game gauge trained hypermiler could do very well in the non-hybrid Civic but will do spectacular with the HCH-II. 53/70 mpg from each as a guess. Even with the best FE results, the out of pocket $ would skew the decision towards the non-hybrid in that scenario? In the real world with the average driver, the non-hybrid will more then likely languish in the mid 20’s to low 30’s. This guesstimate is for the mixed City/Highway - middle distance (15 - 20 miles) driver. The hybrid can do wonders for that individual. The short haul driver’s? The Hybrid will more then likely never reach its potential let alone the lower yearly mile total skewing the $’s saved toward the less expensive Civic in that scenario … I am not saying the HCH-II’s FE cannot be driven into the ground because it easily can but with the FCD’s in front of you, at least you know how you are driving in real time and can make the appropriate adjustment(s) vs. the non-hybrid Civic driver attempting to figure out what they received when they place $25.00 into the tank. That particular he or she will probably have no clue as to what we are talking about because they do not know how to divide miles driven/gallons of fuel filled
 
Honda Civic - Please post your gas mileage
 
      Although you make a very good point about resale with the pack question at 150,000 + miles, the Insight and Prius I’s have been out for over 5 years and if the HCH-II/Prius II’s resale is anything like those 2 hybrids, the hybrid owners have nothing to worry about.
 
      And other reasons to purchase a hybrid … Some just do not like consuming as much oil given where some of it comes from or emitting as much from the tail pipe. For those individuals, the Hybrid kicks $$
 
      Someone posted above that the non-hybrid 06 Civic was an SULEV-II when it’s actually a ULEV-II. Honda could have made the non-hybrid just as clean but chose not too One more notch down the board but still very clean.
 
      Good Luck
 
      Wayne R. Gerdes

#9 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [xcel] by warner

Dec 18, 2005 (12:12 pm)

Replying to: xcel (Dec 18, 2005 9:31 am)
Hi Warner:
  
      A few intangibles … Because of the Trip A/B FCD’s (Fuel Consumption Displays) and Instantaneous’ in the HCH-II, it has the capability to reach the EPA and far beyond if the new driver is willing to learn from them. FCD feedback is truly a wonderful thing. A previously game gauge trained hypermiler could do very well in the non-hybrid Civic but will do spectacular with the HCH-II. 53/70 mpg from each as a guess. Even with the best FE results, the out of pocket $ would skew the decision towards the non-hybrid in that scenario? In the real world with the average driver, the non-hybrid will more then likely languish in the mid 20’s to low 30’s. This guesstimate is for the mixed City/Highway - middle distance (15 - 20 miles) driver. The hybrid can do wonders for that individual. The short haul driver’s? The Hybrid will more then likely never reach its potential let alone the lower yearly mile total skewing the $’s saved toward the less expensive Civic in that scenario…. I am not saying the HCH-II’s FE cannot be driven into the ground because it easily can but with the FCD’s in front of you, at least you know how you are driving in real time and can make the appropriate adjustment(s) vs. the non-hybrid Civic driver attempting to figure out what they received when they place $25.00 into the tank. That particular he or she will probably have no clue as to what we are talking about because they do not know how to divide miles driven/gallons of fuel filled
 
Wayne, I don’t doubt that an educated and disciplined driver (aka Hyper-miler) can achieve greater than EPA estimates, likely even more above EPA estimate in a Hybrid than they could in a non-Hybrid. This goes beyond just having the gauges, though….it also involves a decision to change one’s driving style drastically. Obviously, someone’s decision to drive that way probably would affect my comparison which was based upon averages and standard test methods (EPA). My postings were directed at the AVERAGE buyer of either vehicle, not a specialty driver. As far as what the average driver will get in a non-hybrid, I can tell you that the 41,000 mile average that I got from my ’04 Civic LX 5-speed was 35mpg (for the record, that was EXACTLY between the city/highway EPA estimates for that vehicle), and believe me when I tell you that I am FAR from a hyper-miler in my driving style. I accelerate quickly and speed my butt off. My typical 20 mile commute to work almost always involves speeds around 80mph for as much of the trip as possible, and when that isn’t possible that means I’m in heavy traffic (stop-and-go), so my mileage would suffer even worse in that. And I hope that you are wrong (or joking) about people’s ability to figure their FE. I would hope that ANY driver of ANY car would be able to divide the number of miles by number of gallons if they so desired. I certainly don’t need a built-in computer to do simple division…..nor does my 10 year old son.
 
   
      Although you make a very good point about resale with the pack question at 150,000 + miles, the Insight and Prius I’s have been out for over 5 years and if the HCH-II/Prius II’s resale is anything like those 2 hybrids, the hybrid owners have nothing to worry about.
 
You could be right….it was just a question that remains to be proven out one way or another. Personally, I would not buy such a vehicle with mileage that was beyond the warranty on such an expensive part. Others may have differing opinions. Either way time will tell.
  
      And other reasons to purchase a hybrid … Some just do not like consuming as much oil given where some of it comes from or emitting as much from the tail pipe. For those individuals, the Hybrid kicks $$
 
I don’t fault anyone for buying a Hybrid (or any other car for that matter) for personal reasons. My initial post was directed towards those who were considering which vehicle to get based on cost, not emotion or personal tastes.
 
      Someone posted above that the non-hybrid 06 Civic was an SULEV-II when it’s actually a ULEV-II. Honda could have made the non-hybrid just as clean but chose not too One more notch down the board but still very clean.
 
I knew that the non-hybrid was not a SULEV-II…that was not my post and it was not a factor in the criteria of my original post.
 
                      Warner

#10 of 34 Re: Civic Hybrid vx Civic LX - How many miles before I break even? [warner] by thegraduate

Dec 18, 2005 (10:37 pm)

Replying to: warner (Dec 17, 2005 10:50 am)
The spoiler can be added to the EX for a LOT less money than the 16” alloys could be added to the Hybrid. (and the Hybrid wheels are probably the ugliest wheels I’ve ever seen….but that’s opinion and shouldn’t be figured in to this discussion; we’re here to compare facts, not opinions
 
The wheels on the Hybrid, like those of the little Insight, are designed to be more aerodynamically efficient than those (albeit more stylish) rims on the EX (or wheelcovers from the LX). They produce less aerodynamic drag. You should know, that while the EX is designed more to a style standpoint, the Hybrid is designed to a function (electric A/C that allows the gas engine to shut-off and still cool the interior, the spoiler isn't for looks, but to make the car more efficient). The list goes on...

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