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Automotive News & Views Toyota in decline in 2009?
3247 messages, Last post on Nov 09, 2009 at 7:46 PM
You are in the Automotive News & Views Forum. Your Hosts are steve_ & claires
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Toyota Motor Corp. may be getting a new leader in 2009. The Wall Street Journal reported today that Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe is expected to quit sometime in 2009. Toyota officials in the United States, contacted by Automotive News, would not comment on the report. Toyota is projecting a rare operating loss for the fiscal year, which ends in March. But the expected operating loss would not be the reason for any change in management, according to the report. Watanabe would assume the mostly ceremonial role of Toyota chairman and take over for Fujio Cho, who is suffering from health problems, according to The Wall Street Journal. But is he quitting or is he being promoted? I would expect a top executive or two to fall on the sword after the forecast of the first annual loss in 60 years of manufacturing history. http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081223/ANA02/812239973/1178- - (registration link) In related news, it's now official: unwanted Toyotas are piling up in California. California has always been an important import car market. But unsold cars, fresh off the boat, are stacking up in Benicia, as well as in Southern California. Toyota and Mercedes alone have leased an additional 46 acres to store cars in California that have no buyers and nowhere to go. Japanese automakers now find themselves in the same predicament as Detroit. Consumers are staying away from showrooms, either unable to get loans or unwilling to make a big purchase right now. And that's causing new Toyota shipments to stack up at its facility at the port of Benicia. The president of Toyota told reporters in Japan: "It's a kind of emergency that we've never experienced before." "Places where we thought there was going to be great strength -- better than here, it looks like we're all in the same boat right now," said Sean Randolph Ph.D. Randolph is an economist and president of the Bay Area Economic Institute. A global economic flu has spread from the U.S. to Europe and now to Asia. Japanese exports to the U.S. are down 33 percent. http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/business&id=6567989
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Replying to: nippononly (Dec 23, 2008 1:30 pm) None of this should have been a surprise. Look to our history and see what happened to the rest of the world when the US went into the depression. Same spread of the same flu. Now if Fox News had reported this news instead of ABC they would have released the Story on December 7th.
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Replying to: boaz47 (Dec 23, 2008 4:51 pm) 
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Replying to: nippononly (Dec 24, 2008 11:28 am)  If Toyota hadn't decided to make the Prius look like a fat door stop I might not have taken a dislike to it right off the bat. I did look at the Insight when it first came out and considered it before I got the PT or the Focus. It reminded me a bit of the CRX if only it didn't have those stupid wheel skirts. But when I was shopping a good friend of mine did drop the coin and bought one. He had a horrid commute to Edwards AFB and yes it got better than 60MPG. Not often have I wished I had picked a car and now think of getting a used one. But the Prius was never in the running because while I will put up with some bad road manners, remember I lived in the mountains, I simply couldn't put up with a wallowing toad like the first gen Prius. Not if it wasn't going to deliver 60 MPG.
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Replying to: nippononly (Dec 23, 2008 11:32 am) It's also significant for another reason. This is the first vehicle from the 4 hybrid makers that's placed in direct competition with another hybrid. Yes the HAH was there for a while but it disappeared as soon as the TCH arrived. Yes the NAH is sold in competition to the TCH but in fact it is a TCH in a Nissan skin....and only in limited markets. Now the FFH will be the No 1 most fuel efficient midsized auto on the road. Although it too will be sold only in 'hot spot' markets due to battery supply limitations it is right in the face of the TCH. By my perception this is the end of the 10 yr 'introduction period' where the hybrid makers did not compete against one another directly. Now they do. We enter a new period.
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So what will 2009 bring? I'll start off by a few obvious observations.. Toyota is not going away and it is not in any finacial trouble, but just like every other vehicle maker now it lacks customers. The lack of consumers coming to showrooms currently will extend well into the prime buying season of March - Sept. I don't know all the details but I'm hoping that the Obama Stimulus package may break the winter ice buildup in consumer buying. The JY/USD rate of 90:1, until a new rate is agreed upon, will put a temporary halt to 4Runner, Land Cruiser ( tiny ), GX470, LX570, LS and most other Lexus shipments from Japan. Yaris, Scion and Prius sales will also be affected. Corolla, Camry, Sienna, Avalon, IS, RAV, Matrix, Tacoma, Tundra, Sequoia and soon Highlander sales will not be affected at all since nearly all of them are produced here. Lower fuel prices will begin to bring buyers back to look at trucks again. The probable demise of Chrysler will be a boon for the other 3 truck makers and for Honda and Toyota's minivan businesses. Current estimates indicate that 2009 will be the worst year sales-wise in the last 60 yrs. It will be significantly worse on the production side. If current sales estimates for 2009 are accurate  10 million units then with a 3 million unit inventory overhang that means that only 6-7 million units are needed to be produced for the US market. This isn't NA production because some of these units will be produced in Europe and Asia. NA production is likely to be in the 5-6 million unit range. That's about 50% of what's been 'normal' these past two decades. The Gen 3 Prius will be debuted in two weeks. Orders are already being placed without prices. Some people indicate that their 'number' is in the hundreds. It should arrive in late spring but without a new currency agreement I'd expect that the initial supplies will be very very limited with pricing on the high side to say the least. A new 4Runner is due here this spring ( see above ). It may not be very significant simply due to the death of this segment coupled with the currency situation. The Camry is due for a refresh in Feb/Mar with the new 2.5L 2AR engine. It will be more powerful and more fuel efficient. Will there be a 6Spd tranny to go along with it? How will Toyota respond to the debut of the new Ford Fusion hybrid? When will the TCH be redone with the 2AR linked to the new HSD in the Gen 3 Prius? Other possible developments are an announcement on a hybrid minivan; a hybrid option on the Venza; a new EV concept vehicle to be debuted in Detroit next month; a fuel cell offering for the public.
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Dec 25, 2008 8:08 am) Toyota is number 1 now so some people will think it's time to bring them down a notch. Some of the blame for the domestic auto woes is going to be directed at the imports, rightly or wrongly. The Hummer defacing crowd may get some company as delinquents move over to Priuses. Generally speaking, I think people are going to continue to hang on to their money more closely for the next few years which is going to mean excess manufacturing capacity for all the car companies. It probably will take something like a fuel cell to get people excited about buying cars again. Does Scion still make sense in North America? |
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Replying to: steve_ (Dec 25, 2008 8:46 am)
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Replying to: boaz47 (Dec 25, 2008 9:42 am)
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Replying to: gagrice (Dec 25, 2008 10:13 am) Problem with a diesel engine is that to be really fuel efficient the engine must be really hot. A five or ten minuet drive to the mall or to run errands really doesn't get the engine hot enough to get the big MPG. If you factor in the extra price you paid for the diesel engine and then the extra price you pay each time for diesel fuel. I don't think you are gaining that much with all the fuel efficient vehicles on the market today. |
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