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Automotive News & Views Hybrids & Diesels - Deals or Duds? 
5196 messages, Last post on Oct 16, 2006 at 6:55 AM
You are in the Automotive News & Views Forum. Your Hosts are steve_ & claires
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Replying to: w9cw (Mar 20, 2006 11:38 am) Again a very well known but probably unfactored is the 150,000 mile guarantee of the Prius CC vs how ever long for the Walker Muffler one? |
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Replying to: w9cw (Mar 20, 2006 11:38 am) When I had to replace the EGR valve on my Dodge truck, the dealer was $30 less than several after market vendors. Not always the case though. I have also found that using dealer PCVs and thermostats worked better than aftermarket vendor parts. |
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Now it's fair to do a parallel comparison of both the 'hybrid' premium and the 'diesel' premium for auto since costs are starting to become known with the advent of ULSD. Detroit News article http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060320/AUTO01/603200333/1148- - - Obviously small autos won't have $5000+ increases in the cost of diesel engines. However using the figure stated in the article of ~ 8% increase on top of an already existing premium of $1000 over a gasser, one could construct the following model. 1.5L Gasser engine ( least efficient Baseline ) Est Cost $4000 ( ? better estimates ) Fuel Cost: $1135 ..455 gal/yr ( 15K  33 mpg $2.50/g) 5 year 'system' cost: $9675 1.5L Diesel engine Estimated Cost: $4000 'Current' diesel prem: $1000 ULDS premium = 8%: $400 Fuel Cost: $977 ..349 gal/yr ( 15K 43 mpg $2.80/g ( current $2.70 + 0.10 for ULSD ) 5 year 'system' cost: $10,285 1.5L Hybrid engine Estimated Cost: $4000 'Current' hybrid prem: $3000 Fuel Cost: $783 ..313 gal/yr ( 15K 48 mpg $2.50/g ) 5 year 'system' cost: $10,915 The foregoing is based on the following assumptions ( subject to corrections ): The cost of a basic small car engine remains constant at about $4000. Fuel prices stay stable $2.50 /g ( see below ). Diesel premiums and hybrid premiums are real costs and not marketing upcharges; e.g. MB is not charging a ULSD premium according to the DetNews and Toyota says that they are aiming at a prem of $1000. There will be 100% reliability on all systems with no special maintenance. ULSD remains at a 10% permium over unleaded. No improvements will be made in engine/hybrid fuel usage technology. Another scenario: Due to increasing world demand, unstable situaitons and a strategy of producers to increase the price of their product, the price of fuel increases by $0.50/gal annually for the next 5 years. The 5 year total 'system' costs would be: ( Gasser - Diesel - Hybrid ) 2006 - $2.50 /gal - $9675 - $10,285 - $10910 2007 - $3.00 /gal - $10,825 - $11,160 - $11,695 2008 - $3.50 /gal - $11,965 - $11,735 - $12,480 2009 - $4.00 /gal - $13,100 - $13,080 - $13,260 2010 - $4.50 /gal - $14,240 - $14,040 - $14,045 However 'Resource usage' for these 5 years would be: Gasser - 2275 gal / veh - baseline Diesel - 1745 gal / veh ~ 23% savings Hybrid - 1565 gal / veh ~ 31% savings Using a production of 8 Million autos annually, beginning this year reduce the gassers by 500,000 annually and increase the diesels/hybrids at the same rate. 2005 8.0 Million vs 200,000 2006 7.5 Million vs 700,000 2007 6.0 Million vs 1.2 Million 2008 5.5 Million vs 1.7 Million 2009 5.0 Million vs 2.2 Million 2010 4.5 Million vs 2.7 Million The 'resource' savings become enormous. Air quality improvement can also be calculated similarly. Now convert all or most trucks/SUV's over to diesel or some advanced diesel/hybrid combo.
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Hybrid cars such as the Toyota Prius and Honda Civic remain extremely popular and in short supply, but hybrid SUVs such as the Lexus RX 400h and even sedan hybrids such as the Honda Accord are staying on the lots longer than expected. Ron Cogan, publisher of Green Car Journal, believes the issue is that consumers have not yet caught on to bigger hybrids. http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2006/03/21/001604.html
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Just stumbled across this interesting article: "A diesel Mercedes-Benz ML 320 CDI consumed nearly 11percent less fuel than the hybrid Lexus RX400h in a 3210-mile coast-to-coast economy run across the US. The endurance test, carried out by German magazine Auto Bild, started in New York and ended in San Francisco, with the M-Class returning an average of 31.04mpg and the Lexus just 27.69mpg, despite being 13bhp less powerful and having less torque (pulling power)." http://www.channel4.com/4car/news/news-story.jsp?news_id=12868&ref=archive
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Replying to: stevedebi (Mar 21, 2006 9:10 am) The results of the Auto Bild test seem reasonable given current technology. |
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Replying to: jkinzel (Mar 21, 2006 8:47 am) Chicken: Egg? Is the so called "popularity" due to the short supply? I am SWAGGING we are seeing in the finely crafted "hybrid full court press". RUNNING out of gas! (pun thrown in free!   ) If the logic on this board is any indication hybrids advocates say the hybrids are "THE answer" for those GAS GUZZLING SUV's. One set of relatives just bought a Toyota Highlander hybrid. It is EPA rated at 31/27 mpg. (vs 18/24 gasser only) For their sake, I would hope they don't experience the same gig as some Prius owners (much less mpg than EPA ratings) According to Edmunds.com there is app a $7,000 premium over the gasser only TH. But they live in Marin, CA so the HYBRID cachet there is "PRICELESS" Me? A turbo diesel SUV that gets 25/30 mpg and above would lessen the want/need for a lot of vehicles. |
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Replying to: ruking1 (Mar 21, 2006 9:28 am) I have not done a lot of homework in the hybrid SUV area, but I don't think any can touch the mileage of the Jeep Liberty diesel. Many report 26-30+ mpg hiway. |
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Replying to: ruking1 (Mar 21, 2006 9:28 am) As noted elsewhere: The Insight never was intended for mass usage. HAH and HH are incorrectly marketed as V8's into a market base that favors economy over power. Both should die. The 400h is correctly placed where it belongs but it will always be a small market as most luxury vehicles are. Ditto the new GS450h. The FEH is beset with being in the Ford family and until that entire ship is righted it will suffer. It is also one generation behind the Toyota versions. Now lets see how the next round plays out with: the TCH the Hybrid Altima ( Nissan TCH ) the new Hyundai's the new Ford Hybrid auto's the hybrid Sienna ( V6 +HSD or 4c +HSD question again ) the new HH due out at the end of this year. ( same ? as the Sienna ) a hybrid Corolla ( next year also? ) If the logic on this board is any indication hybrids advocates say the hybrids are "THE answer" for those GAS GUZZLING SUV's. see my post just above yours... the big rigs probably all belong as diesels given the present technology.
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Mar 21, 2006 8:21 am) In order to investigate the "Diesel Premium" for ULSD diesel vehicles, I will use Toyota vehicles sold in UK as an example. Yaris 1.3 VVT-i 87 hp gasoline 1.4 D-4D 90 hp diesel $1049 dollars increase the diesel option (a 1.09% increase in cost) Corolla 1.4 VVT-i 96 hp gasoline 1.4 D-4D 90 hp diesel $1039 increase for the diesel option (a 1.1% increase in cost) Avensis (model similar to North American Camry) 1.8 VVT-i 129 hp gasoline 2.0 D-4D 116 hp diesel $647 increase in for the diesel option (1.05% increase in cost) Same trim and same transmission was used, no tricks to attempt to deceive, and no assumptions needed as these are all current models with actual MSRP prices. 1.1% is the largest cost difference, and the nothing more than $1100 for "Diesel Premium". Something smells rotten with the 8% figure quoted in the Detroit News article. All of the Toyota engines gas and diesel are Euro IV compliant and all of the diesels emit LESS C02 than the comparable gasoline version. And all of the diesels are already doing this on ULSD! If the domestic manufacturers can not introduce diesel vehicles at a 1.1% and $1100 or less cost increase, our only hope is for Toyota and Honda to introduce diesels in North America. |
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