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#198 of 606 Re: I think you guys need to be epiphanized [larsb]
Oct 06, 2005 (1:12 pm)
my boss paid $10,000 for a 10 megabyte hard drive to put into a server. That drive today, if you can find one, is about 99 cents on E-Bay
Or in our case the RLL 40 meg hard drive that stores the billing in a Cell site is near impossible to find. The Company just happens to have a few used ones at $1200 each. If you need a part for a 2001-2003 Prius that is out of warranty you are going to get the shaft from Toyota. It is already happening.
#199 of 606 Re: Maybe, maybe not..... [larsb]
Oct 06, 2005 (1:15 pm)
WOAH HOLD ON NELLIE you said "Their current failure rate is infinitesimal (that means REALLY small.)" infinitisimal means zero or as asymptotically close to zero as you can get.
There have been failures and there will be more failures and yes in most cases the whole traction battery will not fail. But my point is that it will take specialization and equipment to pinpoint the exact failure correctly , quickly and inexpensively.
Maybe the HAH will work with a failed battery, but I would suggest that a Insight or HCH with a failed battery therfore a failed IMA would be dangerously slow. Imagine Priuses flying by and passing you quickly
The economy of scale is a misnomer on future batteries is unknown. The current technology of the traction batteries has already recovered the developmental costs and any future economy of scales will be minimal in production efforts, because they are already getting close to material only cost where is already at an economy of scale. While they mght decrease or remain the same ,do not expect anything like a significant cost decrease in batteries. H'mm let me ask all the readers when was the last time you replaced your battery with one from a wrecked car in a storage yard ?
#200 of 606 All these things are yet to be determined....
Oct 06, 2005 (1:25 pm)
We are attempting to tell the future here. My view (and I have been right on a lot of things Hybrid-related so far because I do my homework) is that Hybrids will adapt themselves just fine in the automobile community, and will not require special babying.
Batteries will fail at current rates, which means super duper small.
Batteries will become available on the second hand market, because hybrids have ALREADY and will continue to be totalled, like any other car category. Battery prices will come down as production costs come down, like every other thing in our economy.
Resale value will remain high.
I think we are going to have to "Agree to Disagree" on these issues, but time will tell who will be correct. I have been correct on a number of issues so far, and I expect to keep up my streak....
#201 of 606 Re: Maybe, maybe not..... [midnightcowboy]
Oct 06, 2005 (1:27 pm)
Who cares? The battery is warranted for virtually the life of the car. 100k/150k depending where you live. I'm not concerned or have I been disuaded from the cynical rhetoric. If anything, your arguments have made me even more eager to get my hybrid.
#202 of 606 Re: Maybe, maybe not..... [falconone]
Oct 06, 2005 (2:30 pm)
I would say you care. And you have researched and listened to all sides of the hybrid issue. You are going into buying a hybrid with a good understanding of the pros & cons. That is what this forum is all about. Odds are you will love the Prius like the rest of the owners represented here. I would call that a win, win situation.
#203 of 606 Re: All these things are yet to be determined.... [larsb]
by MrShift@Edmunds HOST
Oct 06, 2005 (3:17 pm)
Speaking of the future, how do any of us know that when we buy a current type of hybrid, that we are buying the DVD and not the VHS of hybrid systems? We already seem to have 3 differing engineering models in place and there may be more (and better ones).
For the present anyway, hybrids seem to be a part of "feel good marketing", which is FINE....but they don't yet add up to any savings over a regular car. Great technology and excellent emissions however. I could see the latter arguments as sound enough for buying one, that it supports an emerging (if volatile) technology and is a clean running car (presuming it doesn't require external re-charging).
But the "saving money" argument falls apart IMO, at least in 2005.
#204 of 606 Re: All these things are yet to be determined.... [Mr_Shiftright]
Oct 06, 2005 (6:59 pm)
"...the "saving money" argument falls apart ..." That is a generalized statement, and as such, it is incorrect.
The truth is that for a certain group of drivers like me, the "saving money" argument holds. And it has been true since year 2000. I've been a Hybrid driver for more than 5 years.
The purchase of a hybrid makes more sense when you drive more miles. In my case, it's 30k miles per year. My peak year was 40k miles. In today's society, many people have long commutes to work, so they are likely to pile on more miles than the measely 15k/year and it makes more sense to them.
I used to have the very first model of Xler 300M. At 23mpg, I had to fill up every 3 days or so. In heavy trafic in Boston when the whole interstate became a parking lot, it sat while burning gas and got me no where.
The Prius, on the other hand, visited filing station every 2 wks thus giving me much more time flexibility rather than having to exit interstate to get gas (sometimes with urgency) then merge on to the "parking lot" again. But the real trick was that it would shut down in "parking lot" situation while others consumed gas. Quoting gas mileages, to compare Hybrids and regular cars, fails to account for this wasteful parking lot situation.
#205 of 606 Re: All these things are yet to be determined.... [maxamigo]
Oct 07, 2005 (4:45 am)
A 300M is not comparable in size or equipment to a Prius. How about a Corolla or Civic that gets 35mpg under the same conditions? It may still save some fuel money, but how much over the cost of a mid-trim Civic? 35mpg vs. 50mpg for 30k miles at $3/gallon is $770 savings per year.
Everyone should do the math on their own situation, but don't skew the numbers to make you feel better.
#206 of 606 Re: Maybe, maybe not..... [falconone]
Oct 07, 2005 (6:35 am)
"Who cares? The battery is warranted for virtually the life of the car. "
Actually, that is turning out not to be completlely true. There have been several documented cases where the battery won't retain a charge and Honda refuses to replace the battery because it still works! There have been some unexplained failures on the hSD system and modules and entrire batteries being replaced becuse the exact cause could not be pinpointed.
Obviously , if you bought a brand new Prius and went to the dealer a month later and demanded that your battery would be replaced they would not do it.
By the same token if your traction battery were completley dead and none of the cells or modules worked and it was still under the warranty period , it would have obviously failed and would be repalced under warranty.
However, it is the gray area in the middle that is of concern, when does a battery become bad enough to be replaced ? Even if the owner sayes and knows the battery is not working right, if it does not meet the car dealers replacement diagnostic criteria it will not be replaced. And these criteria are high because a car dealer is not about to lose money on a warranty item. It just doesn't make good business sense.
I find it very amusing that thaere are so many opinions on how the battery failure rate is so low because it never discharges more than x% or becuase there is special charging circuitry, Yadda Yadda. None of these opnions are coming from actually examining the battery electrical design or from a deep understanding of electrical and battery technology. All of these opnions are merely parroting the sales and marketing literature that the car manufacturers are putting out to try to get people to buy hybrid cars in the first place.
Has anyone seen or read any detailed long term testing reports from an independent third party lab as to the life expectancy of a hybrid traction battery? The answer is NO !
And there is the naive asumption that pricing on traction batteries will come down and that traction batteries will be sold on a secondary market or wrecked hybrids or the frogs will grow wngs and fly. The best bet is the latter and obvious that is not realistic in the near term unless Darwin's theory accelerates.
Have you seen the headlines in the paper in 2010 "Owners dump hybrids because of failing batteries" "hybird cars have gone by the wayside just as turbo cars" "Fuel cell cars are the most economic" "Diesel cars are outsellingr gas cars"
If saying my coments about batteries makes you want to buy a hybrid even more eager, then I say you had already made up your mind. Did you realize that most advertising is not necessarily to cause the initial ppurchase , but to mitigate depression and buyers remorse after spending so much money on a item that immediatiately and quickly begins to lose value.
My comments are not so cynical as truthful and sometimes the truth hurts when one takes off thier rose colored glasses.
#207 of 606 Don't need a study - we can look at real world cars NOW.
Oct 07, 2005 (6:50 am)
quote MidCow-"Has anyone seen or read any detailed long term testing reports from an independent third party lab as to the life expectancy of a hybrid traction battery? The answer is NO !"-end quote
That's because a study like that is UNNECESSARY !!
We already have 9 year old Priuses in Japan. If batteries were dying like flies, the Japanese bloggers would be Blogging it and Toyota would be getting bashed left and right. The world is small enough now that information like that would be getting around.
The story I posted yesterday of a Honda Insight owner with a 104K 2000 model Insight who had a failed battery and got it replaced for $500 is FAR FAR closer to any reality that you can fantasize about for 2010.
Batteries WILL need to be replaced, but in such small numbers that it's not even going to be an issue for 99% of Hybrid owners !!
My glasses are black rimmed with polarized green lenses.