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Hybrid Vehicles The Great Hybrid Battery Debate
669 messages, Last post on Apr 06, 2009 at 2:32 PM
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Replying to: kipk (Oct 07, 2008 5:27 am) "If I keep a vehicle for 'X' number of years ( pick a number ) then which of the following two vehicles will cost me less over that timeframe and miles driven factoring in fuel costs, maintenance, insurance and resale value" Has anyone actually figured the "Break Even" cost of Hybrid vs Conventional with equal amenities. Yes this has been done so often it's very old news and the problem is ALWAYS posed incorrectly ( see above ). CR does it about once or twice a year. They just published an article with that info in it. Talking about initial difference of purchase price. A while back I compared the MSRP of a Civic Hybrid vs a comparably equipped conventional engined Civic. Seems the difference was in the $5k range. Another factor to consider is that dealers are most likely more willing to "deal" in a conventional engined car. But for the purposes of this post, consider a $4k difference. Your math is WAY OFF here in regards to the Civic gasser vs HCH. At most it's about $3000. The Prius is $4000 more than the Matrix. The TCH ranges from $1500 to $3000 more than the gasser Camry depending on trim level. Example: At 7%, Financing a $24K car loan for 72 months would cost $447.59 monthly, $32,226 total cost. While financing $20K would be $373 monthly, $26855 total cost. $5371 extra total for the Hybrid. OK you were talking about adding in the financing costs. Your numbers sound about correct. At 15K miles a year, Simple math says over the 72 months the 45 average mpg hybrid will use 2, 000 gallon of fuel. While a 32 mph conventional car would burn 2,812 gallons. Hybrid saves 812 gallons of fuel. At $4 per gallon the hybrid would save $3248 in fuel cost. At $5 the hybrid would save $4060 in fuel. So it seems the break even point would be much longer than 6 years and 90K miles for the typical driver. This is assuming nothing goes wrong with the batteries or any of the other components that operate the "Hybrid" system. So far we have only been told that the batteries last a long time. What about the other "Hybrid" components? Obviously more complicated math than I've used here would fall into play. Figuring in if the fuel saved each month was used to buy CDs and so forth. Your math on the fuel savings is accurate also even to the point of factoring in an inflation estimate. Most don't do this ( including Edmunds ). But what all the analyses miss is RESALE value, especially if fuel does go north of $4 or $5 a gallon. That $4000 premium initially paid is partially recovered when the vehicle is sold. The shorter period that the vehicle is held the more of the 'hybrid premium' is recovered at resale. A 6 y.o. hybrid is worth more than a 6 y.o. gasser of the same model. How much more depends on the vehicle, the market at the time and a lot of other factors. As an example last July USED 1 y.o. Prius' which originally has an MSRP of $22000, with 10-12000 miles on them, were going for $26000 - $28000 at auctions. Not only was there no depreciation but the buyers actually had 25% appreciation. Now if you say that you're a 'keeper' normally staying with a vehicle for 10-12 years, then the fuel savings will accumulate for another 6 years or another $3000-$4000 in savings. Yes it's a close decision as to whether the costs equal each other Regarding the maintenance on the hybrid systems....there is NONE. As in ZERO! It's all electric so there's nothing to be done to them. Since they've been on the market now for 11 yrs it's becoming apparent that the hybrid electric components might be the MOST reliable parts of the vehicle. It's one reason why there's so much interest now in PHEVs, E-REVs, EVs, etc.
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Replying to: kipk (Oct 07, 2008 5:27 am) Assumptions: Yours are accurate IMO except that RESALE VALUES are not factored in. Hondas and Toyotas lose about 10% per year in Resale Value as they age. Lets say that both the gasser Civic and the HCH both lose 60% of their value over 6 yrs. $24000 * 60% = $14400 Depreciation $20000 * 60% = $12000 Depreciation Net Extra cost: $2400 6 * 15000 mi = 90000 mi driven  45 mpg = 2000 gal used 6 * 15000 mi = 90000 mi driven 32 mpg = 2812 gal used Cost of fuel is 812 * $4 = $3248 812 * $5 = $4060 CD interest 'foregone' $4000 * 4% for 6 yrs = $1060 Summary Initially you spend $4000 more for the HCH but on resale you recover $1600 of that. However in buying the HCH you 'forego' $1060 in CD interest over that period of time. Your net extra cost is ~$3500. In fuel expenses.. $4 a gallon on average you will save ~$3250 over 6 yrs and 90,000 mi. $5 a gallon on average you will save ~$4050 over 6 yrs and 90,000 mi It looks like a wash to me. Both vehicles will cost about the same to purchase and drive over that specific time and mileage. Take your pick. Currently there is a small Fed Tax Cred on the HCH and some states waive sales tax if you buy a hybrid. Hey it looks like the people in the Marketing Department at Honda did a good job of pricing each vehicle. |
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Oct 07, 2008 12:05 pm) Thank you for your reply. >"Your math is WAY OFF here in regards to the Civic gasser vs HCH. At most it's about $3000." I'm thinkin that If anything, my $4000 for comparison may have been a bit low. I just went back to Edmunds and checked the MSRP on a few vehicles, for the sake of comparison, Using the automatic tranny. We know, that how a car is actually equipped will reflect the actual MSRP as well as the actual selling price. I don't know how the base or the high end models are equipped. The Civic Hybrids ranged from $23,550 to $26,750 The Civic gassers ranged from $16,205 to $22,205 Extra cost for Hybrid................$7,345 to $ 4,555 Toyota Camry only showed 1 hybrid. The price is $26,150 The gas Camry ranged in price from $20,195 to $22,815 Extra cost for the Hybrid ranges from $3945 to $5,955 The Prius Ranges from $22,000 to $24,270. The gas Corolla Ranges from $16,150 to $20,050. Extra cost for the Prius ranges from $5850 to $4220. Using the Edmunds "Comparator", The Corolla is closer in size to the Prius than the Camry is. Actually the Corolla is a bit larger than the Prius. The Camry is larger than either. So I compared the Corolla to the Prius. I gave the low to high ranges because the different equipment can require that maybe a a base gasser is not equipped as well as a base hybrid and so forth. We also need to consider that the dealers are going to hold the Hybrid prices as high as possible, and possibly even add on a "Supply and Demand" fee to the bottom line. Where as they are "dealing" on the gassers as the market is becoming flooded with them. The "Hype" is on as you pointed out with: >"As an example last July USED 1 y.o. Prius' which originally has an MSRP of $22000, with 10-12000 miles on them, were going for $26000 - $28000 at auctions. Not only was there no depreciation but the buyers actually had 25% appreciation." Why anyone would want to pay the dealer that $26K-$28K PLUS dealer profit for a used Prius is beyond logic to me. >"If I keep a vehicle for 'X' number of years ( pick a number ) then which of the following two vehicles will cost me less over that timeframe and miles driven factoring in fuel costs, maintenance, insurance and resale value" That sounds one fair way of saying it! In my above post I was simply trying to point out the possible length of time the average driver would/could expect to drive before he was getting out of the "Extra cost" Hole. Getting to the Break Even point of owning a Hybrid rather than a gasser.  Seems that everyone is jumping on the Hybrid band wagon right now. So we don't know the value of todays hybrids in the future. Batteries as we know them may be a thing of the past, which would hurt the resale of present day technologies. Of course, gassers may also be a thing of the past. Regards, Kip
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Replying to: kipk (Oct 08, 2008 6:22 am) The Civic hybrid is roughly equal to the Civic EX, No leather and No Navi. http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/2008/index.html#search=open.eq..amp.p.eq.cveh- icledata%23%23-1%23%23-1%7E%7Ef64%7C%7C536564616e%7E%7Enf51%7C%7C436f6d70616374 The respective Base prices are $19510 and $22600,i.e. about a $3000 difference. The Prius is not comparable to a Corolla. The Prius is a 5 door hatchback the Corolla is a 4 door sedan. The Prius is more accurately comparable to the Matrix which is also a 4cyl 5 door hatchback The respective prices, with similar equipment, are $20400 and $24400,i.e. about a $4000 difference The standard TCH is very close in equipment to the 4c XLE Camry gasser. The respective prices are $27400 and $29200 ( both have cloth, SR but no Navi ), i.e. about an $1800 difference. The auction prices that I mentioned in my post were NOT the resale prices being asked to the public. They were the purchase prices being paid by professional buyers on behalf of the dealers in order to secure those vehicles. Then the vehicles had to be transported back to the buying store, prepped, financed and resold. Some stores had as many as 20-40 of these in stock and the public willingly understood that they were paying $5000 - $10000 above the original sticker. The market speaks. Again there is no 'Break Even' point unless you are generating income with your vehicle. What you actually have is two columns of expenses, one for vehicle A and one for vehicle B. In the case of the Civic / HCH comparo the bottom lines are about equal at 6 yrs but the HCH costs less if the vehicle is kept 10-12 yrs. In the case of the Prius / Matrix the costs are about equal at about 5 yrs but the Prius costs less if the vehicle is kept 10-12 yrs. In the case of the TCH / Camry the costs are about equal at 2-3 yrs but thereafter the TCH costs much less than the gasser sibling.
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Oct 08, 2008 7:44 am) The respective prices are $27400 and $29200 ( both have cloth, SR but no Navi ), i.e. about an $1800 difference." WHEN, a Hybrid of comparable size and weight and equipment can be bought at $1800 more than a gasser, it will be a value. You and I both know that just ain't happening. The battery pack alone cost more than that. Also the dealers are not "dealing" on the Hybrids. They are "dealing" on the gassers. If anything, they may tend to add more $1500-$2500 "Protection" to the hybrids. Such as, pin stripe, fabric protection (scotch guard), and the infamous acid rain paint protector. These items are added by the "Get Ready" department at the dealer. Biggest cost to the dealer is the wage paid to the guy spraying, washing, and stretching the tape. Add to that the "Supply and demand", sticker and the "We just aren't going to deal on this one" mentality, and there is a huge difference in the price of a Hybrid and Comparably Equipped, same size vehicle. Your dealership may be different. >The auction prices that I mentioned in my post were NOT the resale prices being asked to the public. They were the purchase prices being paid by professional buyers on behalf of the dealers in order to secure those vehicles. Then the vehicles had to be transported back to the buying store, prepped, financed and resold. Some stores had as many as 20-40 of these in stock and the public willingly understood that they were paying $5000 - $10000 above the original sticker." There ya go !. When used ones are selling for $5000 - $10000 more than the new MSRP, How much is the price of a new one jacked up? Just so we are on the same page or at least in the same book, I personally feel that the Toyota and the Honda are be best values in the automotive world. Everything considered. However, right now, I don't think the Hybrids are worth the real world "Extra" cost. >"Again there is no ' Break Even' point unless you are generating income with your vehicle." At $5,000-$10,000 extra cost for the Hybrid, you are right. There is no ' break even' point. In this case, For me, "Break Even" is : When the higher initial cost of the Hybrid is compensated for by fuel savings, the "Break Even" point is reached. It has cost as much to own one as the other. From that point, I'm saving money, until time to replace batteries or something else went wrong that is Hybrid exclusive. I don't understand how/why you feel there is only "Break Even" for those using the car to generate income. Please explain !  Thanks, Kip
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Replying to: kipk (Oct 11, 2008 5:12 am) All the other stuff that you note about protection and worthless addons is only a local/regional issue. It also depends on one's ability to say 'NO'. I don't understand how/why you feel there is only "Break Even" for those using the car to generate income. Please explain 'Break Even' is a specific accounting concept that occurs when income equals expense ( usually fixed expense ). If you are the normal retail buyer then you don't generate any income by the use of your vehicle. If you were a small business ( which in fact you are with your family budget ) the correct way to do an analysis is that you or your accountant would do an analysis of two vehicles; add up all the expected expenses over the expected life of the two vehicles then you'd choose which vehicle cost you less in total expenses. That's the only valid comparo to make. In almost all cases the hybrids cost less then the non-hybrid versions.
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Oct 11, 2008 11:10 am) All 2009 except noted: Camry Hybrid 5 each $32,129 Camry XLE 2.4L 3 each $26,269 Camry XLE V6 one each $29,429 (2008) Prius 11 each Start at $24,869 to $28,844 Matrix 12 each from $19,519 to $23,879 with AWD That is $5860 more for the Camry hybrid over the Camry XLE 4 cyl. I cannot see ever getting the value form a hybrid in CA. Your prices may vary. We have 11 dealers and they all have similar or higher pricing.
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Replying to: gagrice (Oct 11, 2008 1:04 pm) In the first two vehicles you compared a loaded TCH with leather, Navi and Sunroof to a standard XLE 4c without leather or Navi. Your comparo is the most specific of all specific cases....actual inventory on hand. There's no valid conclusion that can be drawn from looking at actual inventory on hand unless you wanted to drive away this afternoon in one. That XLE V6 has to be a Used one or off-Rental vehicle. The new 2008s were gone on President's Day W/E in Feb. The current MSRP for a 2009 XLE V6 is ~$32600. Go to the website. Approximate numbers XLE V6 $32600 TCH ... $32100 XLE I4 $30800 The Matrix FWD with PO, KE, AA, VS and Z1 is about $20600 MSRP The Prius Pck#2 with similar equipment is $ $24400. You can get Navi in the Matrix XRS with a SR but not with Bluetooth nor with leather. However this will put you into the $25500 range as opposed to a Package #5 Prius $27900 ( Navi / No leather ).
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Oct 12, 2008 1:47 pm)  . Check out the prices. I just picked the top of the list Toyota dealer. They have 3 XLE 4C at $26k. http://www.mossytoyota.com/new-inventory/vehicle-details.htm?vehicleId=fd7df9e74- 046381e013c6654b5a8df8f&useHistory=true
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Replying to: gagrice (Oct 12, 2008 5:27 pm) My guess is that this is a 'down demo' that a manager or owner or member of the owner's family has been driving from Jan til now. It still is regarded as a 'new vehicle' since it's never been sold at retail and never titled. If it's like in VA the 'down demos' have to be parked at about 5000 miles so that they can still be sold as 'new'.
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