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The Great Hybrid Battery Debate - READ ONLY

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Messages Page 64 of 67

#630 of 669 Re: Finally, some CONCRETE battery cost information [larsb] by kdhspyder

Sep 24, 2008 (2:20 pm)

Replying to: larsb (Sep 24, 2008 2:01 pm)
I hit 90,000 miles yesterday in 34 months. VA is a Fed Warranty state.

#631 of 669 Re: Finally, some CONCRETE battery cost information [larsb] by gagrice

Sep 24, 2008 (6:09 pm)

Replying to: larsb (Sep 24, 2008 2:01 pm)
Does that price include the core rebate? If it is like most dealers, you will get a different price at 10 different dealers. Plus what is the labor charge to replace and re-program the computer? Based on the cost of an oil change at Toyota, that could be a grand or more.

#632 of 669 The Batteries in Hybrid Cars by motoracer44

Oct 03, 2008 (6:19 pm)

I hope someone can help. I just read this short article at ButteryBlend.com that talks about new Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries that will revolutionize hybrid cars. What do they use now? Lithium Cobalt Oxide batteries? Awesome article none the less. Thanks for the time.

#633 of 669 Re: Finally, some CONCRETE battery cost information [gagrice] by kdhspyder

Oct 04, 2008 (5:25 am)

Replying to: gagrice (Sep 24, 2008 6:09 pm)
Those prices are the walkup full retail prices at the Parts Desk, sans labor or old battery rebate ( $200 ). Over on PriusChat I read that a swap in and out takes about 4 hours or about $500 in labor. Also over there I read that one dealer is offering the batteries under $2000 already.
 
If the cost of labor for the swap is based on the cost of oil changes here then the price would be FREE...

#634 of 669 Re: Finally, some CONCRETE battery cost information [kdhspyder] by gagrice

Oct 04, 2008 (9:32 am)

Replying to: kdhspyder (Oct 04, 2008 5:25 am)
Not at my dealership. It cost $64.60 for the 5000 mile oil and filter change. Using cheapo 30 weight dino oil. It was $70 more for synthetic. It will be my last service at Toyota for sure. GMC across the street sent me free oil change coupons on my GMC PU truck. In 13k miles I never paid a penny for service.
 
So in CA I would expect a battery change for a Prius to top $5,000 easy. Maybe more.

#635 of 669 True cost to own? by kipk

Oct 07, 2008 (6:27 am)

Has anyone actually figured the "Break Even" cost of Hybrid vs Conventional with equal amenities.
 
Talking about initial difference of purchase price. A while back I compared the MSRP of a Civic Hybrid vs a comparably equipped conventional engined Civic. Seems the difference was in the $5k range. Another factor to consider is that dealers are most likely more willing to "deal" in a conventional engined car. But for the purposes of this post, consider a $4k difference.
 
Example: At 7%, Financing a $24K car loan for 72 months would cost $447.59 monthly, $32,226 total cost. While financing $20K would be $373 monthly, $26855 total cost. $5371 extra total for the Hybrid.
 
At 15K miles a year, Simple math says over the 72 months the 45 average mpg hybrid will use 2, 000 gallon of fuel. While a 32 mph conventional car would burn 2,812 gallons. Hybrid saves 812 gallons of fuel.
 
At $4 per gallon the hybrid would save $3248 in fuel cost. At $5 the hybrid would save $4060 in fuel. So it seems the break even point would be much longer than 6 years and 90K miles for the typical driver.
 
This is assuming nothing goes wrong with the batteries or any of the other components that operate the "Hybrid" system. So far we have only been told that the batteries last a long time. What about the other "Hybrid" components?
 
Obviously more complicated math than I've used here would fall into play. Figuring in if the fuel saved each month was used to buy CDs and so forth.
 
Kip

#636 of 669 Re: True cost to own? [kipk] by kdhspyder

Oct 07, 2008 (1:05 pm)

Replying to: kipk (Oct 07, 2008 6:27 am)
First there is no such concept as 'Break Even' in this analysis unless you use the vehicle for some business purpose and generate income from its use. What you mean to say is ...
"If I keep a vehicle for 'X' number of years ( pick a number ) then which of the following two vehicles will cost me less over that timeframe and miles driven factoring in fuel costs, maintenance, insurance and resale value"
 
Has anyone actually figured the "Break Even" cost of Hybrid vs Conventional with equal amenities.
 
Yes this has been done so often it's very old news and the problem is ALWAYS posed incorrectly ( see above ). CR does it about once or twice a year. They just published an article with that info in it.
  
Talking about initial difference of purchase price. A while back I compared the MSRP of a Civic Hybrid vs a comparably equipped conventional engined Civic. Seems the difference was in the $5k range. Another factor to consider is that dealers are most likely more willing to "deal" in a conventional engined car. But for the purposes of this post, consider a $4k difference.
 
Your math is WAY OFF here in regards to the Civic gasser vs HCH. At most it's about $3000. The Prius is $4000 more than the Matrix. The TCH ranges from $1500 to $3000 more than the gasser Camry depending on trim level.
  
Example: At 7%, Financing a $24K car loan for 72 months would cost $447.59 monthly, $32,226 total cost. While financing $20K would be $373 monthly, $26855 total cost. $5371 extra total for the Hybrid.
 
OK you were talking about adding in the financing costs. Your numbers sound about correct.
  
At 15K miles a year, Simple math says over the 72 months the 45 average mpg hybrid will use 2, 000 gallon of fuel. While a 32 mph conventional car would burn 2,812 gallons. Hybrid saves 812 gallons of fuel.
  
At $4 per gallon the hybrid would save $3248 in fuel cost. At $5 the hybrid would save $4060 in fuel. So it seems the break even point would be much longer than 6 years and 90K miles for the typical driver.
  
This is assuming nothing goes wrong with the batteries or any of the other components that operate the "Hybrid" system. So far we have only been told that the batteries last a long time. What about the other "Hybrid" components?
  
Obviously more complicated math than I've used here would fall into play. Figuring in if the fuel saved each month was used to buy CDs and so forth.
 
Your math on the fuel savings is accurate also even to the point of factoring in an inflation estimate. Most don't do this ( including Edmunds ).
 
But what all the analyses miss is RESALE value, especially if fuel does go north of $4 or $5 a gallon.
 
That $4000 premium initially paid is partially recovered when the vehicle is sold. The shorter period that the vehicle is held the more of the 'hybrid premium' is recovered at resale. A 6 y.o. hybrid is worth more than a 6 y.o. gasser of the same model. How much more depends on the vehicle, the market at the time and a lot of other factors. As an example last July USED 1 y.o. Prius' which originally has an MSRP of $22000, with 10-12000 miles on them, were going for $26000 - $28000 at auctions. Not only was there no depreciation but the buyers actually had 25% appreciation. Now if you say that you're a 'keeper' normally staying with a vehicle for 10-12 years, then the fuel savings will accumulate for another 6 years or another $3000-$4000 in savings. Yes it's a close decision as to whether the costs equal each other
 
Regarding the maintenance on the hybrid systems....there is NONE. As in ZERO! It's all electric so there's nothing to be done to them. Since they've been on the market now for 11 yrs it's becoming apparent that the hybrid electric components might be the MOST reliable parts of the vehicle. It's one reason why there's so much interest now in PHEVs, E-REVs, EVs, etc.

#637 of 669 Re: True cost to own? [kipk] by kdhspyder

Oct 07, 2008 (1:49 pm)

Replying to: kipk (Oct 07, 2008 6:27 am)
So using your example and the two vehicles that you chose lets see which costs less to purchase and to drive over 6 yrs.
 
Assumptions: Yours are accurate IMO except that RESALE VALUES are not factored in.
 
Hondas and Toyotas lose about 10% per year in Resale Value as they age. Lets say that both the gasser Civic and the HCH both lose 60% of their value over 6 yrs.
 
$24000 * 60% = $14400 Depreciation
$20000 * 60% = $12000 Depreciation
Net Extra cost: $2400
 
6 * 15000 mi = 90000 mi driven 45 mpg = 2000 gal used
6 * 15000 mi = 90000 mi driven 32 mpg = 2812 gal used
 
Cost of fuel is
812 * $4 = $3248
812 * $5 = $4060
 
CD interest 'foregone'
$4000 * 4% for 6 yrs = $1060
 
Summary
Initially you spend $4000 more for the HCH but on resale you recover $1600 of that. However in buying the HCH you 'forego' $1060 in CD interest over that period of time. Your net extra cost is ~$3500.
 
In fuel expenses..
$4 a gallon on average you will save ~$3250 over 6 yrs and 90,000 mi.
$5 a gallon on average you will save ~$4050 over 6 yrs and 90,000 mi
 
It looks like a wash to me. Both vehicles will cost about the same to purchase and drive over that specific time and mileage. Take your pick.
 
Currently there is a small Fed Tax Cred on the HCH and some states waive sales tax if you buy a hybrid. Hey it looks like the people in the Marketing Department at Honda did a good job of pricing each vehicle.

#638 of 669 Re: True cost to own? [kdhspyder] by kipk

Oct 08, 2008 (7:22 am)

Replying to: kdhspyder (Oct 07, 2008 1:05 pm)
kdhspyder,
 
Thank you for your reply.
 
>"Your math is WAY OFF here in regards to the Civic gasser vs HCH. At most it's about $3000."
 
I'm thinkin that If anything, my $4000 for comparison may have been a bit low.
 
I just went back to Edmunds and checked the MSRP on a few vehicles, for the sake of comparison, Using the automatic tranny. We know, that how a car is actually equipped will reflect the actual MSRP as well as the actual selling price.
 
I don't know how the base or the high end models are equipped.
 
The Civic Hybrids ranged from $23,550 to $26,750
The Civic gassers ranged from $16,205 to $22,205
Extra cost for Hybrid................$7,345 to $ 4,555
 
Toyota Camry only showed 1 hybrid. The price is $26,150
The gas Camry ranged in price from $20,195 to $22,815
Extra cost for the Hybrid ranges from $3945 to $5,955
 
The Prius Ranges from $22,000 to $24,270.
The gas Corolla Ranges from $16,150 to $20,050.
Extra cost for the Prius ranges from $5850 to $4220.
 
Using the Edmunds "Comparator", The Corolla is closer in size to the Prius than the Camry is. Actually the Corolla is a bit larger than the Prius. The Camry is larger than either. So I compared the Corolla to the Prius. I gave the low to high ranges because the different equipment can require that maybe a a base gasser is not equipped as well as a base hybrid and so forth.
 
We also need to consider that the dealers are going to hold the Hybrid prices as high as possible, and possibly even add on a "Supply and Demand" fee to the bottom line. Where as they are "dealing" on the gassers as the market is becoming flooded with them.
 
The "Hype" is on as you pointed out with:
>"As an example last July USED 1 y.o. Prius' which originally has an MSRP of $22000, with 10-12000 miles on them, were going for $26000 - $28000 at auctions. Not only was there no depreciation but the buyers actually had 25% appreciation."
 
Why anyone would want to pay the dealer that $26K-$28K PLUS dealer profit for a used Prius is beyond logic to me.
 
>"If I keep a vehicle for 'X' number of years ( pick a number ) then which of the following two vehicles will cost me less over that timeframe and miles driven factoring in fuel costs, maintenance, insurance and resale value"
 
That sounds one fair way of saying it! In my above post I was simply trying to point out the possible length of time the average driver would/could expect to drive before he was getting out of the "Extra cost" Hole. Getting to the Break Even point of owning a Hybrid rather than a gasser.
 
Seems that everyone is jumping on the Hybrid band wagon right now. So we don't know the value of todays hybrids in the future. Batteries as we know them may be a thing of the past, which would hurt the resale of present day technologies. Of course, gassers may also be a thing of the past.
 
Regards,
Kip

#639 of 669 Re: True cost to own? [kipk] by kdhspyder

Oct 08, 2008 (8:44 am)

Replying to: kipk (Oct 08, 2008 7:22 am)
In your analysis you mentioned comparing vehicles of roughly equal equipment.
 
The Civic hybrid is roughly equal to the Civic EX, No leather and No Navi.
http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/2008/index.html#search=open.eq..amp.p.eq.cveh- icledata%23%23-1%23%23-1%7E%7Ef64%7C%7C536564616e%7E%7Enf51%7C%7C436f6d70616374
The respective Base prices are $19510 and $22600,i.e. about a $3000 difference.
 
The Prius is not comparable to a Corolla. The Prius is a 5 door hatchback the Corolla is a 4 door sedan. The Prius is more accurately comparable to the Matrix which is also a 4cyl 5 door hatchback
The respective prices, with similar equipment, are $20400 and $24400,i.e. about a $4000 difference
 
The standard TCH is very close in equipment to the 4c XLE Camry gasser.
The respective prices are $27400 and $29200 ( both have cloth, SR but no Navi ), i.e. about an $1800 difference.
 
The auction prices that I mentioned in my post were NOT the resale prices being asked to the public. They were the purchase prices being paid by professional buyers on behalf of the dealers in order to secure those vehicles. Then the vehicles had to be transported back to the buying store, prepped, financed and resold. Some stores had as many as 20-40 of these in stock and the public willingly understood that they were paying $5000 - $10000 above the original sticker. The market speaks.
 
Again there is no 'Break Even' point unless you are generating income with your vehicle. What you actually have is two columns of expenses, one for vehicle A and one for vehicle B.
In the case of the Civic / HCH comparo the bottom lines are about equal at 6 yrs but the HCH costs less if the vehicle is kept 10-12 yrs.
In the case of the Prius / Matrix the costs are about equal at about 5 yrs but the Prius costs less if the vehicle is kept 10-12 yrs.
In the case of the TCH / Camry the costs are about equal at 2-3 yrs but thereafter the TCH costs much less than the gasser sibling.

Messages Page 64 of 67

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