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Hybrid Vehicles The Great Hybrid Battery Debate
669 messages, Last post on Apr 06, 2009 at 2:32 PM
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Replying to: avalon02wh (Jul 13, 2008 6:13 am) $4102 dollars of fuels per year, Needs 22.8 Barrels of oil per year, Emits 12.2 tons of CO2 per year, and Has an air pollution score of 3 And you are worried about the batteries on a Prius lasting 10 years! You do make a lot of assumptions in your posts. First our Sequoia only has 5700 miles after 10 months of use including one trip to AZ and several trips to the desert. The car we use the most is our 1990 LS400 that is nearing the 95k mile mark on the Odo. What are the odds that we could have kept a Prius for 19 years with nothing major failing? Let's get down to the root issue about the Prius. There is a whole segment of people that just can't handle saving fuel Again you are assuming that is me. If you could go back on this site to 1998 you would have found my first posts were in search of a more fuel efficient PU truck. Ten years later there are still NO decent fuel efficient PU trucks sold in the USA. Every other country in the world have diesel PU trucks getting 30-45 MPG except US. So maybe it is contrarian position when we buy big SUVs in this country. It just may be we are trying to tell our flaky government that we are unhappy with their ignorant regulations and tariffs (aka as chicken tax). Yes the Sequoia dropped $10k before it ever left the dealers lot. And they are the ones that took that loss. I am patient and will find someone that just has to have a 2007 Sequoia Limited 4X4 that is loaded after I get a diesel SUV that I like. I beat the odds with the GMC Hybrid PU by waiting. It was worth $7000 more than the GMC dealer would offer me. So I am not worried nearly as much as I would with the clock ticking on that Prius Battery life. We will know more in 5+ years about hybrid battery longevity. Gas to date on 07 Sequoia $1248.73. Just filled so good for a safe motoring 300 miles 
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Prius Battery replacement costs announced: Not $4000 Also at the seminar, Toyota announced a price cut for replacement battery packs for its Prius hybrids. Built in a joint venture with Panasonic, the replacement battery for the first-generation Prius costs $2,299; for the second-generation model, the cost is $2,588. The replacement nickel-metal-hydride batteries previously cost $2,985 for either variety. There are more than 600,000 of the hybrids on the road. Prices are for replacements after the warranty expires. The original-equipment batteries carry a 10-year/150,000-mile warranty in California-compliant states and an eight-year/80,000-mile warranty elsewhere. So now the "out of warranty" owners can start budgeting. |
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Replying to: larsb (Sep 24, 2008 1:01 pm) |
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Replying to: larsb (Sep 24, 2008 1:01 pm)
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| I hope someone can help. I just read this short article at ButteryBlend.com that talks about new Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries that will revolutionize hybrid cars. What do they use now? Lithium Cobalt Oxide batteries? Awesome article none the less. Thanks for the time. | |
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Replying to: gagrice (Sep 24, 2008 5:09 pm) If the cost of labor for the swap is based on the cost of oil changes here then the price would be FREE... 
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Oct 04, 2008 4:25 am) So in CA I would expect a battery change for a Prius to top $5,000 easy. Maybe more. |
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Has anyone actually figured the "Break Even" cost of Hybrid vs Conventional with equal amenities. Talking about initial difference of purchase price. A while back I compared the MSRP of a Civic Hybrid vs a comparably equipped conventional engined Civic. Seems the difference was in the $5k range. Another factor to consider is that dealers are most likely more willing to "deal" in a conventional engined car. But for the purposes of this post, consider a $4k difference. Example: At 7%, Financing a $24K car loan for 72 months would cost $447.59 monthly, $32,226 total cost. While financing $20K would be $373 monthly, $26855 total cost. $5371 extra total for the Hybrid. At 15K miles a year, Simple math says over the 72 months the 45 average mpg hybrid will use 2, 000 gallon of fuel. While a 32 mph conventional car would burn 2,812 gallons. Hybrid saves 812 gallons of fuel. At $4 per gallon the hybrid would save $3248 in fuel cost. At $5 the hybrid would save $4060 in fuel. So it seems the break even point would be much longer than 6 years and 90K miles for the typical driver. This is assuming nothing goes wrong with the batteries or any of the other components that operate the "Hybrid" system. So far we have only been told that the batteries last a long time. What about the other "Hybrid" components? Obviously more complicated math than I've used here would fall into play. Figuring in if the fuel saved each month was used to buy CDs and so forth. Kip
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Replying to: kipk (Oct 07, 2008 5:27 am) "If I keep a vehicle for 'X' number of years ( pick a number ) then which of the following two vehicles will cost me less over that timeframe and miles driven factoring in fuel costs, maintenance, insurance and resale value" Has anyone actually figured the "Break Even" cost of Hybrid vs Conventional with equal amenities. Yes this has been done so often it's very old news and the problem is ALWAYS posed incorrectly ( see above ). CR does it about once or twice a year. They just published an article with that info in it. Talking about initial difference of purchase price. A while back I compared the MSRP of a Civic Hybrid vs a comparably equipped conventional engined Civic. Seems the difference was in the $5k range. Another factor to consider is that dealers are most likely more willing to "deal" in a conventional engined car. But for the purposes of this post, consider a $4k difference. Your math is WAY OFF here in regards to the Civic gasser vs HCH. At most it's about $3000. The Prius is $4000 more than the Matrix. The TCH ranges from $1500 to $3000 more than the gasser Camry depending on trim level. Example: At 7%, Financing a $24K car loan for 72 months would cost $447.59 monthly, $32,226 total cost. While financing $20K would be $373 monthly, $26855 total cost. $5371 extra total for the Hybrid. OK you were talking about adding in the financing costs. Your numbers sound about correct. At 15K miles a year, Simple math says over the 72 months the 45 average mpg hybrid will use 2, 000 gallon of fuel. While a 32 mph conventional car would burn 2,812 gallons. Hybrid saves 812 gallons of fuel. At $4 per gallon the hybrid would save $3248 in fuel cost. At $5 the hybrid would save $4060 in fuel. So it seems the break even point would be much longer than 6 years and 90K miles for the typical driver. This is assuming nothing goes wrong with the batteries or any of the other components that operate the "Hybrid" system. So far we have only been told that the batteries last a long time. What about the other "Hybrid" components? Obviously more complicated math than I've used here would fall into play. Figuring in if the fuel saved each month was used to buy CDs and so forth. Your math on the fuel savings is accurate also even to the point of factoring in an inflation estimate. Most don't do this ( including Edmunds ). But what all the analyses miss is RESALE value, especially if fuel does go north of $4 or $5 a gallon. That $4000 premium initially paid is partially recovered when the vehicle is sold. The shorter period that the vehicle is held the more of the 'hybrid premium' is recovered at resale. A 6 y.o. hybrid is worth more than a 6 y.o. gasser of the same model. How much more depends on the vehicle, the market at the time and a lot of other factors. As an example last July USED 1 y.o. Prius' which originally has an MSRP of $22000, with 10-12000 miles on them, were going for $26000 - $28000 at auctions. Not only was there no depreciation but the buyers actually had 25% appreciation. Now if you say that you're a 'keeper' normally staying with a vehicle for 10-12 years, then the fuel savings will accumulate for another 6 years or another $3000-$4000 in savings. Yes it's a close decision as to whether the costs equal each other Regarding the maintenance on the hybrid systems....there is NONE. As in ZERO! It's all electric so there's nothing to be done to them. Since they've been on the market now for 11 yrs it's becoming apparent that the hybrid electric components might be the MOST reliable parts of the vehicle. It's one reason why there's so much interest now in PHEVs, E-REVs, EVs, etc.
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Replying to: kipk (Oct 07, 2008 5:27 am) Assumptions: Yours are accurate IMO except that RESALE VALUES are not factored in. Hondas and Toyotas lose about 10% per year in Resale Value as they age. Lets say that both the gasser Civic and the HCH both lose 60% of their value over 6 yrs. $24000 * 60% = $14400 Depreciation $20000 * 60% = $12000 Depreciation Net Extra cost: $2400 6 * 15000 mi = 90000 mi driven  45 mpg = 2000 gal used 6 * 15000 mi = 90000 mi driven 32 mpg = 2812 gal used Cost of fuel is 812 * $4 = $3248 812 * $5 = $4060 CD interest 'foregone' $4000 * 4% for 6 yrs = $1060 Summary Initially you spend $4000 more for the HCH but on resale you recover $1600 of that. However in buying the HCH you 'forego' $1060 in CD interest over that period of time. Your net extra cost is ~$3500. In fuel expenses.. $4 a gallon on average you will save ~$3250 over 6 yrs and 90,000 mi. $5 a gallon on average you will save ~$4050 over 6 yrs and 90,000 mi It looks like a wash to me. Both vehicles will cost about the same to purchase and drive over that specific time and mileage. Take your pick. Currently there is a small Fed Tax Cred on the HCH and some states waive sales tax if you buy a hybrid. Hey it looks like the people in the Marketing Department at Honda did a good job of pricing each vehicle. |
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