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Hybrid Vehicles The Great Hybrid Battery Debate
628 messages, Last post on Jul 13, 2008 at 8:22 AM
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Replying to: gagrice (Jul 08, 2008 11:40 am) Well, it's not MAGIC Gary. There will without a doubt be "some battery deterioration" and that FACT is unavoidable. But how much it affects the mileage will be the key point. Most of the older, highest mileage Priuses which have been reported on show little or no loss in MPG as they age. After a battery has 8-10 years on it, the performance of the battery cannot help but be affected. I'm the one saying "Prius batteries will not FAIL EN MASSE" over time. There will be a few failures out of warranty, for sure. I think that number will still hover around minuscule to barely a blip.
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Jul 08, 2008 12:56 pm) You also like to show that any vehicle that is 10 years old is worthless to the owner. It is worthless to a dealer. It is possibly all the owner can afford. If after 10 years he has to replace an expensive battery that will make the Prius WORTHLESS. So I guess by your definition the Prius is a 10 year throwaway vehicle. I would probably agree with that. Our 19 year old LS400 runs and looks better than many 3-5 year old cars. If we had to replace a $4k to $6k component I would give it to Father Carlucci as a donation. The point being I don't want a car that has that kind of built in expensive component that is deteriorating whether it is being used or not. That is the nature of batteries. It will be the Achilles heel of all EVs in the future. Fine for high mileage drivers not so good for low mileage long term owners.
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Gary says, "For you to say that the Prius battery will last 150K miles is just crazy talk." Ditto from me for anyone who says it won't. We already have Priuses with that many miles.  ( However you slice your comment, it's merely an anti-hybrid, biased opinion, is it not? ) The Prius might be a 10-yr throwaway vehicle for some owners. Just as many gasoline cars also are treated. But about 90% of the Prius can or will be recycled - so who loses? A solution which will please you Gary: "Long term low mileage drivers" can just keep buying gasoline cars as long as they are available. Battery technology WILL SOMEDAY reach the point of lifetime batteries and/or an affordable replacement for the 10-yr owner. Book it. It's gonna happen. If not, then non-fossil-fueled cars will adopt some other sort of alternative power technology. There are too many smart people in the world for this to not be figured out.
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Replying to: larsb (Jul 08, 2008 1:07 pm) That has been one of the sticking points in my mind since the hybrid hit the streets. For those of us conservative drivers will the hybrid be a good "green" long term purchase? If it needs a new battery after 10 years the answer is a resounding NO! Which brings up the real issue. At what point will the automaker be forced to change the battery? At 50% 60% 70% 80% of original capacity. I would say when it drops below 80% it should start losing mileage. That is just an educated guess. I noticed about a year ago that the Lexus starter seemed sluggish. Truth is it was the deterioration of the battery. It finally failed in front of the Costco gas pump. Called AAA and they came and installed a new battery. That sluggish starter sound is gone. It is like we have a new car for $124 including tax and installation. I don't think the person with a 19 year old Prius will be so lucky. All that smugness at the gas pump when they are filling for less than I am will go away. If there ever is such a thing as a 19 year old hybrid.... I just doubt it. Sad isn't it?
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Replying to: larsb (Jul 08, 2008 2:36 pm) That is the 10 year average driver. We shall see if you are right after 5 more years. The fact that my car would be worthless and 90% recycled is very comforting indeed.  I know that our LS400 is probably worthless to a dealer. It still runs great and is how I think all vehicles should be built. Sadly they are not and we are tossing them after just a few years. I dare say the new Lexus will not hold up as well as the first of the breed. What does that say about Toyota and Lexus as automakers. Green does not come to mind. A green car to me is one that is still good after 20 years. There are many environmentalist that share my view. Auto salesmen are definitely not in that group. Mercedes has probably built the most green cars over the last 30 years. Last I read they were awarded greenest car on the planet award. Though it probably would not pass my test for longevity. All people think about is emissions from the exhaust. That is not all we should be measuring.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jul 08, 2008 2:54 pm) All cars reach "worthless" at some point, unless totaled or retired early. Cars which are driven as commuter cars are not an investment (other than collector cars, we know) - they are a consumable which eventually gets consumed down to nothing. Gary says, "A green car to me is one that is still good after 20 years." Lucky for the rest of the world that is only one man's opinion. Gary says, "Last I read they were awarded greenest car on the planet award." Where did you see that? I'd like to see someone who put them ahead of Honda. |
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Replying to: gagrice (Jul 08, 2008 2:23 pm) Sorry this is not accurate. As I noted both the Federal Govt, Idaho National Labs, and Toyota have separately tested the Toyota hybrids to 160,000 and 180,000 miles respectively with no significant deterioration in performance. As a matter of fact in the Feds test I believe that the Gen2 got slightly better FE after 160,000 miles ( break in ) than it did in the beginning. There is data and it's published and done scientifically. Now that the mileage question is put to rest, you are only surmising that age has to overwhelm the batteries because that's the only arrow left in your risk quiver. But that's only your personal viewpoint. Nothing else. There is no proof at all that age up to 10 or 15 yrs has any significant effect on the performance of the hybrid batteries. There are no vehicles that old yet. Nonetheless the CARB warranty is 10 years. Up to that time there is no risk. You also like to show that any vehicle that is 10 years old is worthless to the owner. It is worthless to a dealer. It is possibly all the owner can afford. If after 10 years he has to replace an expensive battery that will make the Prius WORTHLESS. So I guess by your definition the Prius is a 10 year throwaway vehicle. I would probably agree with that. And at 10+ years old ALL mass market vehicles, not hand made LS400's, are next to worthless. At 15 yrs of age they are in fact worthless. An owner may have an unreasoning love of his or her teenager but that doesn't eliminate the fact that it is worthless. It may have some utility but it has no cash value if an attempt were to be made to turn it into cash other than for parts. Our 19 year old LS400 runs and looks better than many 3-5 year old cars. If we had to replace a $4k to $6k component I would give it to Father Carlucci as a donation. The point being I don't want a car that has that kind of built in expensive component that is deteriorating whether it is being used or not. That is the nature of batteries. It will be the Achilles heel of all EVs in the future. Fine for high mileage drivers not so good for low mileage long term owners. This may be true but there's no proof one way or another. It's all wait and see at this point. But the key point I believe here is that while I will grant that there's no guarantee of a 20 yr problem-free life, neither can the doubting Thomas's impute an automatic cost of replacement at the end of the warranty period. There simply is no absolute proof of age longevity. There is however beginning to be a volume of proof that mileage has no bearing on the performance of the batteries. 250,000 miles or 300,000 miles seems very very likely. We shall soon see with my friend Mr Carbot who just turned over 203,000 miles. That's the 2nd Prius he purchased from me. I'm chasing him but I'm far behind at 30 months ( 81,000 mi ) while he's at 54 months ( 203,000 mi ). He will likely reach 250,000 - 260,000 by the time his Gen 3 arrives next summer.
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Jul 08, 2008 8:51 pm) All nice mileage figures. There is a 900k mile Mercedes Sprinter still going in Germany. That again has nothing to do with aging gracefully. I don't think the hybrids will have that luxury. Now that the mileage question is put to rest Mileage has never been a consideration in my buying a vehicle EVER. It has always been longevity. It was longevity on this forum when the Prius first came to San Diego. When we see Prius of any ilk still going strong with good MPG when they are 10 years old I will be convinced. Nothing you or Larsb have said gives me a warm feeling about the longevity of a hybrid. The only thing I see with a vehicle that is 3 years old and 100k miles is some poor slob that spends too much of his life behind the wheel of a car. Risking my life 10k miles per year is plenty. We can come back to this in 5 years if you like... |
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Replying to: gagrice (Jul 08, 2008 2:40 pm) You are not a conservative driver/purchaser. You need to check the definition of the word conservative. You bought a Sequoia which uses $4102 dollars of fuels per year, Needs 22.8 Barrels of oil per year, Emits 12.2 tons of CO2 per year, and Has an air pollution score of 3 And you are worried about the batteries on a Prius lasting 10 years! How much value is left in that Sequoia now that fuel prices are high? Trade in 2007 Sequoia, 15,000 miles = $18,200 Trade in 2007 Prius, 15,000 miles = $25,225 If I was a Prius owner I'd be shaking in my boots about spending a few thousand dollars on batteries in ten years. [Bob Newhart  ] Those of you that bought a Sequoia, on the other hand, watched your SUV drop $15,000 to $20,000 in depreciation in just two years. Let's get down to the root issue about the Prius. There is a whole segment of people that just can't handle saving fuel because, well let me quote the following; "Now, more than ever, we need Hummer, in all its defiant, obnoxious, thoroughly American glory. " http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/11/AR2008071102535.- html The battery issue is just a smoke screen brought up by people that just cannot stomach a fuel efficient or environmentally friendly vehicle. We can't have the "Terminator" driving around in a battery powered car, can we? Its just not American, or at least their definition of American.
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Replying to: avalon02wh (Jul 13, 2008 7:13 am) $4102 dollars of fuels per year, Needs 22.8 Barrels of oil per year, Emits 12.2 tons of CO2 per year, and Has an air pollution score of 3 And you are worried about the batteries on a Prius lasting 10 years! You do make a lot of assumptions in your posts. First our Sequoia only has 5700 miles after 10 months of use including one trip to AZ and several trips to the desert. The car we use the most is our 1990 LS400 that is nearing the 95k mile mark on the Odo. What are the odds that we could have kept a Prius for 19 years with nothing major failing? Let's get down to the root issue about the Prius. There is a whole segment of people that just can't handle saving fuel Again you are assuming that is me. If you could go back on this site to 1998 you would have found my first posts were in search of a more fuel efficient PU truck. Ten years later there are still NO decent fuel efficient PU trucks sold in the USA. Every other country in the world have diesel PU trucks getting 30-45 MPG except US. So maybe it is contrarian position when we buy big SUVs in this country. It just may be we are trying to tell our flaky government that we are unhappy with their ignorant regulations and tariffs (aka as chicken tax). Yes the Sequoia dropped $10k before it ever left the dealers lot. And they are the ones that took that loss. I am patient and will find someone that just has to have a 2007 Sequoia Limited 4X4 that is loaded after I get a diesel SUV that I like. I beat the odds with the GMC Hybrid PU by waiting. It was worth $7000 more than the GMC dealer would offer me. So I am not worried nearly as much as I would with the clock ticking on that Prius Battery life. We will know more in 5+ years about hybrid battery longevity. Gas to date on 07 Sequoia $1248.73. Just filled so good for a safe motoring 300 miles 
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