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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions What type of hybrid should I buy? 
453 messages, Last post on Aug 19, 2005 at 6:05 PM
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Hi Backy: ___Although the following is loaded with extrapolations and goes beyond any amount of detail I have ever read on the economics of a Hybrid vs. std. ICE anywhere else, you may want to take a look at pages 111 – 117. I think the 04 Prius blew some of their conclusions out of the water (the HSD has to be much less costly then a std. automatic transmission) but if the prices of the Inverter, Power electronics, and the pack itself holds true to form, the Hybrid may never be cost effective. http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/244.pdf ___Good Luck ___Wayne R. Gerdes
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I think the 04 Prius blew some of their conclusions out of the water... I think you are correct. According to the estimates in the study (published 10/2001), a '04 Prius should start at over $30,000 in today's dollars. But then, Toyota is a master at wringing costs out of their vehicles. Interesting that their estimate of the first battery cost is "only" $2020, dropping to $1640 in 2010. |
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Hi Backy: ___In regards to the battery costs, I think they might be speaking about costs to the OEM or possibly the cost in 2005 maybe? ___Good Luck ___Wayne R. Gerdes |
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Replying to: xcel (Apr 22, 2004 6:53 pm) Toyota develops Inverter and APU in one unit in house. They call it Power Control Unit. According to that 2001 study, APU and Inverter should cost $3,980+$1,730=$5,710. Toyota can easily save 2k to 3k there. Toyota Power Control Unit  HSD does not have a transmission so, subtract $1,100. Motor and generators are also manufactured in house. Toyota is saving $3,500 to $4,500 by doing almost everything in house. Dennis |
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Regardless of how Toyota amortizes their R & D it is of no concern to me. All new technology is expensive when it is first developed. When hybrids start to become more prevalent, you will see manufacturing costs decrease as well, which will allow for more profit (NOT lower prices). Once other platforms have the hybrid engine, those R & D costs will be allocated on a greater scale. Perhaps Toyota was saying they DO make money when NOT subtracting allocable R & D. Either way, it is going to be interesting to see what the next few years will bring with respect to this new technology.
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Replying to: djasonw (Apr 23, 2004 3:08 pm) Since Toyota has great control of HSD, improvements and tweaking can come sooner than other car companies. Dennis |
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| I saw this article and wanted to post it here, wonder what the numbers this time next year will look like. - snip - Honda Leads in Hybrids…For Now - With Toyota getting so much attention over the past few months for its remarkable second generation Prius, Honda, its chief rival for the affections of hybrid buyers, must be feeling a little left out. But today it can claim a victory, albeit a potentially fleeting one. According to R.L. Polk registration data the Civic Hybrid edged out the Prius…21,750 to 20,387 to become the best-selling hybrid in the U.S. in 2003. Hybrid sales overall were up over 25% in 2003 with total registrations of 43,435. http://www.autofieldguide.com/dp/auto/newsmonger.cfm?id=777 | |
| Hope Honda basks in the glory while it lasts. With annual Prius production at 47,000 units for the U.S. and nearly every one pre-sold, and with the RX400h coming on line later this year, the Highlander hybrid in early 2005, and the Camry hybrid in (estimated) late 2005, it will be hard for Honda to keep up numbers-wise with just the Civic and Accord hybrids unless they plan on making (and selling) lots of Accord hybrids. | |
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| Don't think the Prius was destined to be a volume seller and moneymaker. More of an opening salvo in the hybrid market. I'd say in five years, or less, there will be several offerings from Toyota in their large SUVs and we'll see a Cambry Hybrid, then the profit margins will be acceptable. The Prius, I think, is just to get people comfortable with the whole concept and to prove the reliability of the equipment, and the unusual looks gets it free advertising. | |
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