Last post on Jul 07, 2005 at 3:47 PM
You are in the Pickups - Archived Discussions
What is this discussion about?
Nissan Titan, Ford F-150, Exterior, Engine, Interior, Transmission, Truck
Feb 04, 2004 (1:04 pm)
You are making assumptions and that is my point. Ford has not released (that I know of - maybe you have info I don't?) the figures broken down into how many new F150 2004 non heritage edition they have sold. If we go by the fact there was an increase so it must be the new F-150, then that is a assumption, not a fact. The fact is Ford sold 12000+ Econoline Vans this January and 11000- ones last year for a 12.6(lets roundup to 13%) increase. Was that because of the new F150?
Another fact is Ford sold 84,278 F-150s in Dec 2003, which you say is a record - but they sold 84,657 in Dec of 2001 - not much of an increase, eh?
My point wasn't to cut down Ford about how many new trucks they sold, it is just be careful how companies say things. I would like them to give us a breakdown of how many of those F-series trucks that were sold (not to the dealers, but the end consumers) were the new F-150's.
We know exactly what Nissan sold, but we don't know what the new F-150 sold.
Besides - Ford is going to sell a ton of F-150s. Nobody is really disputing that. Each Titan that is sold a new sale for Nissan and a lost potential sale for Ford. So, in January, Ford sold 4000+ units less than they could have sold.
Feb 04, 2004 (1:21 pm)
Actually, all 4000 people that bought a Titan wouldn't have bought a Ford, perhaps they would have bought a Dodge, Chevy, Toyota, or even an Acura...So, saying Ford lost 4000 potential buyers isn't exactly correct...
I'd like to see the sales figures on the F-150 vs. Chevy 1500 vs. Ram 1500...why can't they publish the half-ton sales individually?...what are they hiding?...I own an F-150 myself but honestly I've never seen so many Dodge Rams in my entire life...their sales have to be up, bigtime...
#450 of 1169 Ford f-150 sales and others
Feb 04, 2004 (1:22 pm)
Just to go a little further, Ford actually had the 2nd worst increase of full size truck sales in January.
Nissan Titan Jan 2004 N/A no sales in Jan 2003
Toyota Tundra Jan 2004 23.7% increase over Jan 2003
GM F/S trucks Jan 2004 15% increase over Jan 2003
Ford F series Jan 2004 9.6% increase over Jan 2003
Dodge Ram Jan 2004 1 % increase over Jan 2003
This probably means that Ford loss market share in Jan 2004, although how much? who knows.
What is obvious from these numbers is the F/S segment grew in Jan 2004.
Make any other assumptions you want.
#451 of 1169 correction to post #450
Feb 04, 2004 (1:41 pm)
Ford chose to use a different calculation than the rest of the companies. If you modify their numbers to match Ford's calculations, then Chevy was up 13.5%, Dodge 4.74%, Sierra 21.2% and Toyota 28.6%
Feb 04, 2004 (2:18 pm)
I like the way you skew the fact to support your argument. The new F150 caused E-van increase? Of course not. It's the reason for the F-series increase? Yes, of course.
What you call assumption, I say obvious. Let's use common sense here:
1) 2 out of 3 F150 factories produce the new F150 (at full speed), the other one, '04 heritage model;
2) dumping of the '03 F150 started in Sep. 03, it had been going on for 5 months before Jan. 04.
3) HD F-series is about 40% of the total, and pretty steady, likely not the reason for double digit increase 5 months in a row.
My conclusion: Unit wise in Jan. 04, '04 F150 > '04 heritage > '03 F150. ANT may get you some hard number. I will also ask around.
If you insist on calling it an assumption, fine. I would say my "assumption" is about 95% correct, the other 5% being HD F-series had significant increase. Do you want to bet that my "assumpiton" is wrong?
PS: you number on December F-series sales should be reversed, it's 84,657 for 12/03 and 84,278 for 12/01. So, yes, it is a new all time record against an old all time record.
PPS: regarding total full size PU sale, I already posted it yesterday. Since it did not fit this topic, I posted in another thread,
hairong "How long before the big 3 lose the truck market?" Feb 3, 2004 4:00pm
with a title, Everybody's happy.
Feb 04, 2004 (2:34 pm)
You're not getting any of my point. Chevy/GMC had a much bigger increase and didn't have any Brand new hot model to sell. The f-150 reference to the econoline was a joke; although I was making a point that the econoline is still the same old econoline but it increased even more than the F-150.
The whole market for full sized trucks increased but Ford was the 2nd worst all all the full sized manufacturers. No assumptions there.
So if you take your assumption as fact (that is fine by me) the new F-150 might have increased the sales of the F series, but not as much as the competition, and in that sense, the new F-150 isn't yet the success you are making it out to be. That is not saying that it won't become a success going forward, Ford seems to be stuck in a small rut right now, though, and that might be hindering the F150 also. Things can and do change, so we will see if it is a positive and negative one for Ford going forward.
By the way, Edmunds has a new F-150 as a long term tester and so far it is a mixed review not looking to good. That too can change over the course of the next year or two. Especially since they are also getting a similiar Titan as a long-term tester to compare to! Maybe the F-150 will rise way above the Titan, maybe not.
#454 of 1169 f-series numbers...
Feb 04, 2004 (5:28 pm)
include everything from a regular cab 2003 handshaker to the f-650/750 super crewzer.
f150 retail sales by itself are usually about 45% of the total.
i cant say for ford as a whole, but we have sold more f250s and f350s in the last few months than any other time in the past.
Feb 05, 2004 (10:00 am)
bowke, bowke, I asked you for some hard number on Nissan, look what you give me: some bogus Ford number.
1) F-series is from F150 to F550, 650/750 are not included. Ford calls them Heavy Trucks and count them separately.
2) In 2003, Ford sold 845,586 F-series, 350,320 of them were F250-F550, good for 41%. In other words, F150 accounts for 59%, not 45%.
3) Heavy Trucks (F650/750s) sales were 976 in 12/03 and 839 in 01/04. If Nissan were to have commercial trucks in NA market, these number would have had significant contribution to Titan sales (trying vainly to be on topic). But for F-series, they barely even register.
You said you are also a Ford dealer, you really should have known better. Now where is the Nissan number.
Feb 05, 2004 (10:05 am)
From "Don't forget the record month for f-series includes, all the 2003s F-150s that have been heavily discounted, all the heritage models, and most importantly F-250, and f-350's",
to "You are making assumptions...We know exactly what Nissan sold, but we don't know what the new F-150 sold",
to "the new F-150 might have increased the sales of the F series",
I am glad I convinced you that the new F150 did increased the sales of the F-series. Common sense always win out. Actually Ford sold over 26k of new F150 in January, about 8k of the old ones (03&04 models), so there you go.
"The whole market for full sized trucks increased but Ford was the 2nd worst all all the full sized manufacturers. No assumptions there."
There you go again. Trying to skew the fact in your favor. If I may, let me try to spin it in Ford's favor.
1) For the past two years, GM monthly market share have fluctuated anywhere from 26% to 32%, a direct result of their different incentive level. So their increase really did not surprise me. OTOH, Ford market share have been on steady decline, sad but worked in my favor for this case.
2) Ford, Nissan and Toyota all benefited greatly from their new products. But since their base number were so different, 56k, 0 and 6k respectively, the percentage number are all over the place. If you look at unit increase, at 5428, 4035 and 1500 respectively, Ford may have made more profit on the increase alone than
Nissan made on all Titan sales in January. How's that for a spin.
3) Percentage wise, Titan's number is out of the universe. But, even if they only sold 1 Titan in Jan., the number is still out of the universe. That's why I asked bowke for Nissan's projection in the first place.
Like I said, everybody is happy. They should.
Feb 05, 2004 (10:31 am)
"I am glad I convinced you that the new F150 did increased the sales of the F-series. Common sense always win out. Actually Ford sold over 26k of new F150 in January, about 8k of the old ones (03&04 models), so there you go."
Another quote of yours:
"In 2003, Ford sold 845,586 F-series, 350,320 of them were F250-F550, good for 41%. In other words, F150 accounts for 59%, not 45%."
Ford Quote and Fact:
"F-Series 61,979" (for Jan 2004)
Fact (based on your quotes) Ford F-150 series had approx. 55% of the Jan 2004 sales of all the F-series - A 4% decrease from the average of 2003.
Now - Where did you get your figures?
Spin it any way you want, Ford's F-series lost market share in Jan for whatever reason. No matter how you spin it, only Dodge had a worse increase; for whatever reason.
Live with it.
As to the Titan projections for Jan - get real. Many dealers still had not even got any Titans. Nissan won't hit their average monthly sales for quite a while for reasons mentioned above.