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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Who can compete with Toyota/Lexus Hybrids? 
126 messages, Last post on Nov 28, 2003 at 11:50 PM
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> How many Prius’ have been sold over the last 3 years? 28,000 have been ordered in the last month alone worldwide. That's a significant growth rate. What GM is attempting is great, but what are their long-term & volume goals? School buses drive a lot of miles too. Will school districts be able to afford that technology? And will GM even offer it to them? For that matter, will other cities get the opportunity to buy? Also remember that the qualified service mechanics will be an issue. Toyota has already commited to offering HSD in every non-commercial vehicle they build by 2010. That's empowering consumers, not just a few choice groups that will provide good PR opportunites. JOHN |
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Hi John1701a: ___Here was the specific question. How many Prius’ have been sold over the last 3 years? As usual, you don’t answer specific questions but instead try and cover up inadequacies. ___Here is the analysis for you nice and simple like ... 235 buses will be introduced with a GM Hybrid Diesel solution. According to the article, it is similar to placing 8,000 Hybrid’s on the road. So one city (namely Seattle) decides to give it a shot and if the COSTS work out, it will do more for our environment and our fuel dependency in that one city alone then every Hybrid sold into that state EVER. I will ask you again, how many Prius’ have been delivered in the last 3 year’s? What’s better, those few ten’s of thousands of Hybrid’s on the road carrying usually 1 person or 1,000, 10,000, 100,000 + buses that are either on the road or soon will carrying between 10 and 60 people at a time? I am all for the Hybrid solution for all vehicles but you keep missing the fact that there are more Corolla’s and Camry’s sold in a month then the 01 – 03 and even the 04 Prius’ in a year. Why is that? Could it be because people wouldn’t like to receive 51mpg on the hwy or 60 mpg in the city? Could it be because they wouldn’t like to own a PZEV automobile? Not in the least. It’s because Hybrid’s are simply expensive. If Seattle does not see a positive ROI in some reasonable period of time, they won’t be doing another Diesel Hybrid bus pilot program purchase either. I just hope GM has the costs figured out for all of our sakes. ___As for the school bus situation, given the average school bus operates for all of maybe 2 to 3 hours per day max, how is a Hybrid solution ever going to work out in that case? It will only work if the costs come down dramatically. Lets all again hope the Honda iCTDi Diesel can be a harbinger for change in that market as well. ___Now as far as who can compete, I sure hope someone can because the costs being stated for today’s personal Hybrid’s cannot be justified as you found out with your 01 trade in. ___Good Luck ___Wayne R. Gerdes ___Waynegerdes  earthlink.net |
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> How many Prius’ have been sold over the last 3 years? Don't like the fact that just 2 years from now Toyota is planning to selling 300,000 hybrid system per year, eh? Current sales rates confirm that's possible. The market 3 years ago didn't have a clue how hybrids worked. So sales were difficult, yet the number climbed to 120,000. And today, lots of people still think they can't travel far and need to be plugged in. Look forward, not backward. > given the average school bus operates for all of maybe > 2 to 3 hours per day max You obviously don't live in the suburbs. The buses in my area run elementry, middle, and high schools routes. That's 3 hours in the morning, 3 hours in the afternoon, and a lot of idling while they wait to pick up students. That's much more running time than your estimates and a heck of a lot miles with the population in the suburbs spread out so much. > as you found out with your 01 trade in Trade in data only counts IF YOU TRADE IN. Many people plan on keeping their vehicle. And focusing on the resale value of a rare, first model year vehicle is kind of silly. It will naturally be lower. Focus on the value of a more established year instead, like the 2005. By then, sales figures will be more in line with other vehicles commonly sold and the vehicle won't be a new concept anymore. JOHN |
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| I agree it would be great if systems as big as Chicago, LA or New York would adopt the Hybrid buses. Funding is always a problem with transit companies. The technology saves fuel, probably makes the buses more quiet and pleasant to ride, and will reduce emissions. The cities should find the funding. | |
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Agree school buses should also be hybrid. GM makes school buses. Schools for the most part are underfunded. Paying extra for the buses would mean convincing local taxpayers the long term savings on fuel would more than make up for the higher costs up front. Unfortunately, about the only thing voters seem to get excited about when it comes to their local schools are initiatives to stop art programs and ban books. |
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| is something the EPA should mandate, then help pay for. | |
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Hi John1701a: ___When did I ever say I don’t like the fact Toyota will sell any number of Hybrid’s? I really want to know how many they sold in regards to the number of buses being reportedly piloted as mentioned in this thread. As for other threads, they sold 120,000 then? Camry’s and Corolla’s sell that in what, 4 months, not 4 years! This is where the market speaks with its dollars. I also don’t approve of the fact that you and many like you that purchased a Hybrid took a $11,000 + bath on an 01 after just 60,000 miles is all. YOU DID TRADE YOUR 01 IN AFTER 60,000 miles, correct? The Insighter’s are really getting creamed, the HCH’s are getting creamed, and the older Prius owners are getting creamed. If this is the cost of a Hybrid, how can you make it up? And how much was the 01-03 Prius battery pack replacement again? Someone has to change your old Prius out eventually or will they just throw the car away at 120, 150, 180K miles? I will be driving the Corolla through the first mileage marker in another year and a half. I will keep you up to date as to if I had to throw it away at that time all the while getting > 40 + mpg on the hwy with the very low TCO as has already been posted. ___Buses in my area usually run ~ 4 hours/day vs. the smaller school districts which run much much less. Again, if the TCO doesn’t work out, they aren’t going to go to a Hybrid. I only hope the GM solution is cheap enough to make it work right out of the box. $’s actually account for something here where it’s being watched. ___Logic1, I completely agree but with today’s cost cutting across all sectors of the economy, the numbers and TCO have to work out or it will not be a consideration to the detriment of us all. ___Nippononly, the EPA does a lot of mandating but I haven’t seen them pay for anything  The real positive to this is that some cities are making a go of it and I can only hope the Hybrid bus system is close enough in cost to make the TCO equal or better over the desired time frame. If it is, we will all benefit from cleaner air and lowered costs for service. Well maybe not lowered cost of service ... If it doesn’t; Hybrid drive automobile/truck manufacturer’s designers and engineers will have to sharpen their pencils a bit before we see it in quantity. ___Good Luck ___Wayne R. Gerdes ___Waynegerdes earthlink.net |
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>>Yes, that is a genuine benefit. But the primary purpose of HSD (the hybrid system Toyota uses) is to significantly REDUCE EMISSIONS, not save fuel. If that truly is the purpose then Toyota's investment seems like a gigantic waste of money. Ford is about to sell a PZEV Focus whose emissions are said to be as clean or cleaner than the air we breath. How can you "significantly" improve on that? Also, you can't reduce CO2 w/o reducing fuel consumption. Your comment leads me to believe that Toyota does not view reducing this type of emission as a priority. The fact is that the primary benefit of a hybrid system is to recapture kinetic energy that is currently being thrown away during decelaration. This is valuable whether your car runs on conventional gasoline, diesel, hydrogen or soybean oil. The greatest benefits will be achieved in vehicles of large mass that make frequent stops. Sounds a lot like a bus to me. Granted the technology used on these buses will to some extent have been developed and refined on smaller vehicles. Luckily for Toyota et. al. there are people like yourself willing to subsidize their R&D. If/when these vehicles become profitable for their manufacturers hopefully they will show their gratitude by offering some sort of rebate to you early adopters, unlikely. One more point. The efficiency penalty incurred by the additional weight of the battery pack should be largely recovered due to the fact that more weight equates to more energy to recapture. |
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You seem to have overlooked the word "PRIMARY". Just because it isn't the top on the priority list doesn't mean it isn't there at all, it's just lower. In the case of the PZEV Ford Focus, there is an efficency penalty. MPG is about 2 lower. In the case of the PZEV Toyota Prius, there is a very significant gain. MPG is about 25 higher. JOHN |
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