Last post on Jan 28, 2013 at 6:55 PM
You are in the Sedans
What is this discussion about?
Audi A8, BMW 7 Series, Jaguar XJ-Series, Lexus LS 460, Mercedes-Benz S-Class, Volkswagen Phaeton, Maserati Quattroporte, Mercedes-Benz CL-Class, Sedan
Let's try to define this forum as being limited to luxury performance vehicles where the mainstream version in a typical configuration has an MSRP of at least $60k.
A luxury vehicle with a base price of $59k qualifies because it would typically be bought with some additional equipment, bringing the MSRP over $60k.
Vehicles like the E, 5, A6, M, or GS, even if available in certain versions over $60k, don't qualify because they are cars from companies that have higher end cars in their lineups.
#12208 of 24723 Re: ALG [ljflx]
Dec 19, 2005 (10:22 am)
I said it before and I'll say it again - agressiveness/risk in lease residuals will get you the number one prize every year.
So BMW plays with the residual values/subsidies in order to accomplish a good rating. A wonderful rumor which cannot be substantiated unless you know the level of subsidies involved! And you know how worthy unsubstantiated rumors are, dont you?
they had posted what the result was for achievement of residuals for the 2002 models and compared it to their future predictions it'd be worth something.
Interesting approach but it appears to be quite worthless in the industry. Otherwise if your approach was better BDD and ALG would consider using your approach instead. But they dont.
#12209 of 24723 Re: ALG [ljflx]
Dec 19, 2005 (10:23 am)
Speaking of aggresiveness, BMW has outdone itself.
They are offering irresistible residuals on 24 month leases:
325i and 525i: 76%
That 325i subsidy has got to be the best bargain in town.
If I wasn't already tied up with my 545...ah, I can't even think about it... my wife would kill me!
#12211 of 24723 Re: ALG [dewey]
Dec 19, 2005 (10:35 am)
"So BMW plays with the residual values/subsidies in order to accomplish a good rating"
No - they play with residuals so they can move cars more easily.
"Interesting approach but it appears to be quite worthless in the industry"
In my book I'll go by past history rather than future predictions. How what is achieved is worthless and what is predicted is the currency to judge things by is beyond any logic I have in me.
Dec 19, 2005 (12:57 pm)
You know what they say about forward looking statements in the financial consulting industry We are talking about minute differentiations here. Is ALG the oracle?
Also, how exactly are the different vehicle models weighed within a brand?
For what it's worth, ALG also puts out a Depreciatong Ratings list with a more sensible 5-star rating system instead of three-digit accuracy that can not possibly be predicted three years into the future (not the least of which would be the value of US dollar, which if ALG could predict with three-significant number accuracy should be at the bond and currency trading desk making billions of selling peanut consulting papers). While Lexus and Toyota each has four models in the 5-star ratings, not a single BMW model makes it into the 5-star list.
#12213 of 24723 Re: ALG [ljflx]
Dec 19, 2005 (2:06 pm)
Why is it that all the Lexicons say that predictions are worthless when it comes to residual/resale, but predictions trump all when it comes to reliability. Clearly both are based on prior performance and current status/value of the vehicles.
Lexicons: Once and for all.... You can't have your cake and eat it, too.
#12214 of 24723 Re: ALG [brightness04]
Dec 19, 2005 (2:08 pm)
Is ALG the oracle?
Virtually all financial/leasing institutions reference ALG to come up with their leasing residuals. ALG has already done all the extensive research (and they've been doing it for yeeeears) and they have a proven track record of accurately predicting future values. If they didn't, then they wouldn't be used as THE source for residual values.
#12215 of 24723 Re: ALG [brightness04]
Dec 19, 2005 (2:11 pm)
While Lexus and Toyota each has four models in the 5-star ratings, not a single BMW model makes it into the 5-star list.
Then please tell me how BMW takes the prize....... ???
Oh wait, I forgot.... ALG ratings are worthless. If that's the case, then why are you even talking about Lexus and Toyota getting 5-star ratings? If the aren't based on anything accurate and shouldn't be considered, then why do you make a post about it? Hmmm.... having your cake, then eating it, too?
#12216 of 24723 Re: ALG [bdr127]
Dec 19, 2005 (2:21 pm)
Because reliability predictions are based on past performance. In my case I also have 11 years of flawless Lexus experience. See my other post - if they showed residuals of past 3 years and compared those to their future predictions then the report would have some basis in fact as opposed to using auto mfr. data - which is derived from the leases they are underwriting. But by excluding past performance then they have no need to explain any difference between what is actual history vs what is predicted future. Suppose for example BMW and Lexus were not 1 and 2 in past retention values but were 4 and 5 vs a predicted 1 and 2 in the future. Wouldn't you be interested to know what the basis of the future prediction vs past reality is? I have no doubt BMW and Lexus are right at or near the top , probably in reverse order based on past history, but the point is that any data table that predicts the future without correlating past performance is worthless in my view. Buying into things like that is like buying a stock that someone tells you will appreciate in value but gives you no past history or reason for the predicted appreciation.
#12217 of 24723 Re: ALG [ljflx]
Dec 19, 2005 (2:32 pm)
If I were to take the past 3 years of Hyundai, do you think that would accurately predict the next 3 years? Highly unlikely, because Hyundai is on the up-and-up.
The reverse is probably true for MB, Volvo, and Saab.
Just like stock, as you mention, things can greatly change in 3 years. For example, look at General Motors, Nortel Networks, Google, etc..... What a difference a few years can make.