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Subaru Crew - Future Models II

21504 messages,  Last post on Nov 04, 2009 at 10:46 PM

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What is this discussion about? Subaru, Sedan, Wagon, SUV




Your Community Leaders are ateixeira and rsholland.


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#21057 of 21504
Re: diesels [paisan] by cptplt
Dec 02, 2008 (3:47 pm)
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Replying to: paisan (Dec 02, 2008 3:03 pm)

diesel price is high in the US as the overall market is smaller yet demand is not adequately met. refineries can only produce so much gasoline or diesel from a barrel of crude. there are essentially 2 different type of refineries in common use in the industrialized world and the US ones are of the type which tries to squeeze more gasoline than diesel out of that barrel of crude so production is skewed to make more gasoline. we actually export diesel to Europe (and Canada and Mexico) as the oil companies get a higher price and they are importing gasoline from Europe so those empty tankers get filled up with diesel to go back eastwards across the atlantic.the US exports 2 million barrels of oil products a day, mostly refined products like diesel etc.as it makes exxon more money to send it to mexico say from the gulf refineries than to ship it to New England or WA state. the whole issue of increasing drilling domestically is a joke if the oil companies are free to export anywhere they want and not keep it in the US as they have had written into all drilling legislation!
#21058 of 21504
Re: diesels [paisan] by dino001
Dec 02, 2008 (7:34 pm)
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Replying to: paisan (Dec 02, 2008 3:03 pm)

Diesel is cheaper to make - but demand on it rose dramatically worldwide, more in proportion to gasoline, hence its high price worldwide. Mostly because of high commercial use (construction, agriculture, etc.) and small-car boom didn't help, either. On top of that in some parts of the world price of fuel has very little to do with actual cost and almost everything with taxes and tarrifs (in Europe those are 60-80% of fuel price) and diesel was not as much taxed as gasoline. So when you combined that with better fuel efficiency, diesels actually used to me sense (30-50% lower operating cost with about 20% higher initial cost and better resale value). People did not care for their clunkiness and other annoyances as long as they could trully save on fuel. That of course spurred even more R&D to make them quitere and cleaner, which of course created even more interest in diesels at at the time (they got less annoying, less noisy, almost competitive in terms of driving dynamics).
 
However, all that was recently put in question as the diesel price rose disproportionally to gasoline (currently in US we have almost 50% higher price; in Europe they are about even or diesel is just slightly more). The prognosis are for diesel price go even higher in proportion to gasoline. It really spiraled to levels at which passenger diesel practically defeats itself.
 
So yes - cheaper to make fuel became more expensive simply because more machines want it. I would say adding even more machines running on the same expensive fuel makes very little sense, especially that alternatives are better in those applications.
#21059 of 21504
Re: diesels [dino001] by volkov
Dec 02, 2008 (10:24 pm)
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Replying to: dino001 (Dec 02, 2008 7:34 pm)

I have to think too that some of this might be a construct to big oil's benefit. They set the price of diesel you pay at the pump. If there were a huge shift to more economical diesel vehicles, the demand drops for oil overall. Just as a wave of 50 state compliant diesels converge with a growing interest the cost of diesel suddenly exploded relative to gas long before the demand was even there. A high price of oil over one year does not cause a significant shift in the vehicles people drive. It shapes which new vehicles are purchased, but that is a small percentage of vehicles on the road.
The demand for diesel in the US did not see a significant change over the last few years so it doesn't justify the spike in domestic prices relative to gas. Make it expensive for a while and it kills an emerging market to a point that it won't recover, and passenger diesels are an emerging market in the US. Seems a little contrived to me; you can make up your own minds.
#21060 of 21504
Re: diesels [volkov] by dino001
Dec 03, 2008 (6:39 am)
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Replying to: volkov (Dec 02, 2008 10:24 pm)

Demand for diesel was not driven by fuel efficient vehicles, but by the construction and agriculture boom (commercial use). Moreover, fuel market is global - it's very easy to redirect tankers, hence US prices are affected by global trends.
 
Fuel efficient passenger cars with diesel propulsion were a byproduct of general increase of energy/fuel prices, hence people seeking alternatives and manufacturers following with their R&D. However, the demand for particular fraction of oil that is used in those vehicles rose much faster than demand on gasoline, hence higher price, higher pace of increases, etc.
 
Diesel used to be "the uggly duckling" of the industry, now it's the primary profit driver. No particular conspiracy is needed - oil companies simply faced larger diesel orders, which meant they could ask for higher price. Unlike passenger cars, commercial and agricultural vehicles don't really have alternatives to diesel. There are some CNG/LPG/LNG attempts in commercial use, but it still will take some time to implement them (and falling oil prices don't help).
#21061 of 21504
Re: diesels [dino001] by ateixeira
Dec 03, 2008 (9:27 am)
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Replying to: dino001 (Dec 02, 2008 7:34 pm)

adding even more machines running on the same expensive fuel makes very little sense
 
Well said, and probably the main reason if the Subaru boxer diesel never makes it here.
#21062 of 21504
by saedave
Dec 03, 2008 (11:40 am)
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Well said, and probably the main reason if the Subaru boxer diesel never makes it here
 
But that 2 liter turbo engine might make a great direct injection high mpg addition to the line of GASOLINE engines. Toyota has the technology so why not?
#21063 of 21504
Re: [saedave] by ateixeira
Dec 04, 2008 (10:17 am)
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Replying to: saedave (Dec 03, 2008 11:40 am)

True, but Toyota tends to save it for its Lexus models.
 
The 2GR in the RAV4, Sienna, and Camry are not DI versions.
 
Then again, GM offers the DI 3.6l V6 in the Malibu (and Camaro) yet it is not standard on the CTS. Go figure.
#21064 of 21504
Re: [ateixeira] by saedave
Dec 04, 2008 (12:29 pm)
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Replying to: ateixeira (Dec 04, 2008 10:17 am)

True, but Toyota tends to save it for its Lexus models
 
I doubt if the general public even knows Toyota has any ownership in Subaru (Fugi). So that should not be a problem. Perhaps more pertinent is the possibility that the more expensive new Legacy/Outback models will be DI. DI will probably be necessary to get even close to the coming required Corporate Average Fuel Economy ratings. The DI 2.5i would probably have about 200HP and the 2.0DI might be 180HP. (That 180HP rating was hinted at by Subaru several years ago in survey questions about future 1.8l-2.0l normally aspirated engined lightweight models.)
#21065 of 21504
Re: [saedave] by ateixeira
Dec 04, 2008 (12:44 pm)
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Replying to: saedave (Dec 04, 2008 12:29 pm)

Those numbers sound really good. With the WRX at 265hp, that leaves room for the N/A engines to move up a bit.
 
You know Subaru, though. Just because the Legacy gets DI doesn't mean other cars will. The Legacy still did not get the 3.6l H6.
#21066 of 21504
Re: [ateixeira] by saedave
Dec 05, 2008 (6:45 am)
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Replying to: ateixeira (Dec 04, 2008 12:44 pm)

You know Subaru, though. Just because the Legacy gets DI doesn't mean other cars will. The Legacy still did not get the 3.6l H6.
 
Consumer Reports said there will be a new Legacy next spring: Those models (probably longer and wider and possibly heavier) might need the 3.6l and DI 2.5 just to maintain performance at the present level. The present 3.0l in my Outback is a fine engine if city mpg does not matter....but CAFE will dictate new models' engine availability. Unless the 3.6l is much more efficient than the 3.0l, the 3.6 might disappear along with the Tribeca which is not selling well. Perhaps DI for the 3.6 could improve mpg.

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